Global protein markets entered 2026 with uncertainty surrounding China’s export quota policies, raising concern among Brazilian livestock exporters. Yet early-year trade data suggest international demand remains resilient — particularly for pork.
🐖 SWINE: Record January Exports Signal Strong Global Pull
According to Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex), Brazil exported 115,000 metric tons of pork in January 2026, marking the largest January volume on record since tracking began in 1997.
While shipments declined 15% from December (136,000 tons) — a typical seasonal adjustment driven by reduced Asian purchasing in early January — exports were still:
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10% higher than January 2025
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The strongest January performance ever recorded
The Philippines maintained its position as Brazil’s top pork destination, importing 37,400 tons in January. Although down 12% month-over-month, this figure was nearly double the volume shipped in January 2025.
Industry Implication
For global pork markets, this reinforces two key dynamics:
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Brazil continues expanding its international pork footprint.
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Despite geopolitical and quota uncertainty, Asian demand remains structurally strong.**
If this pace holds, 2026 could mark another record year for Brazilian pork exports — intensifying global competition, particularly in Asia.
🥩 CATTLE: China Quotas Raise Questions, But Demand Holds
China remains Brazil’s largest beef customer, accounting for 46.3% of total beef exports in January.
Brazil shipped:
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258,940 tons of beef in January
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A 25.3% increase over January 2025
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The highest January volume on record
Of that total, 119,630 tons went to China, the largest January shipment ever recorded to the country.
However, Brazil’s annual export quota to China stands at 1.106 million tons, meaning exporters will be closely monitoring shipment pacing throughout the year.
The United States ranked second among destinations, accounting for 11.53% of exports, with January volumes rising 57.3% year-over-year.
Export revenue totaled USD $1.39 billion in January, 40% higher than January 2025 despite a typical month-over-month decline from December.
🍗 POULTRY: Brazil Maintains Competitive Pricing Edge
Brazil began 2026 with 459,000 tons of chicken meat exported in January, the strongest January performance on record.
While shipments fell 10% from December’s near-record 510,000 tons, volumes were still 3.6% above January 2025.
According to UN data:
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Brazil averaged USD $1.79/kg in 2025
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China averaged USD $1.55/kg
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The U.S. averaged USD $1.59/kg
Notably, Brazil exported 5 million tons of chicken in 2025, surpassing the combined exports of China and the U.S. (4.1 million tons).
Another structural advantage:
Brazil allocates just 67% of production to domestic consumption, compared to:
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86% in the U.S.
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95% in China
This leaves Brazil with significantly more export-oriented flexibility.
What This Means for the Swine Industry
For North American pork producers, several themes stand out:
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Brazil continues to build export momentum despite policy headwinds.
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Record January pork shipments signal durable Asian demand.
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Export-heavy production models give Brazil greater responsiveness to global opportunities.
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Increased Brazilian supply in Asia may influence price discovery and competitive positioning for U.S. and Canadian pork.
As 2026 unfolds, China’s quota enforcement and Asian buying patterns will be critical to monitor — but early signals point to continued global protein demand strength.
Swine Web will continue tracking developments in global export flows and competitive positioning.
