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December Lean Hogs gap opened higher at the session high at 81.725. The high was right at resistance at the declining 13-DMA now at 81.675 and the key level at 81.70. Price reversed course and collapsed down to the low at 79.775. It made the low around 9!! AM and then staged a strong retracement rally before tumbling yet again to settle in the lower end of the range at 80.60. Positive sentiment from a smaller than expected slaughter saw the higher open in my opinion that couldn’t be sustained past the opening trade. The cash market continues to weaken and longs look like they have been liquidating and leaving hogs as open interest has fallen throughout the decline. We don’t have the Commitment of Trader’s report due to the government shutdown but with open interest falling on the decline after a strong rally on high long open interest, it could be a good guess. The new low took price below support at 80.40 on the continuous chart and it stalled just above support at 79.80. The market has been challenging the 80.40 support level over the past 5-days and taking int below the support level and coming close to the next level shows a weakening posture in my opinion. It is still in consolidation mode however as it settled above it on the continuous chart. The December chart indicates an even weaker position in my opinion as it has been riding the rising 200-DMA over the past 5 days. It poked its nose below it for the third time on Monday and finally settled below it. The 200-DMA is at 80.70. Just barely below it but below it just the same. If price takes out the Monday low, Hogs could sink further. We’ll see!… If price can hold settlement, we could see a test of resistance at the declining 8-DMA now at 81.125. The 13-DMA is next and the 81.70. A failure from the low could see price test support at 78.80. Support then comes in at 76.175.
The Pork Cutout Index decreased and is at 100.82 as of 10/31/2025.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 91.19 as of 10/30/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 493,000, which is even with last week and above last year’s 488,075.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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