The USDA’s July 2025 Feed Outlook report signals tightening feed grain supplies heading into the 2025/26 crop year, with key implications for pork producers. Corn and sorghum production projections are down, while exports continue to surge. Here’s what matters most for your bottom line.
🌽 Corn: Lower Acreage, Strong Exports
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2025/26 U.S. corn production is revised down by 115 million bushels due to reduced harvested acreage.
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Ending stocks for 2024/25 are also trimmed, cutting new crop supply by 140 million bushels.
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Despite solid crop condition ratings, this puts upward pressure on prices.
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Corn exports are projected at a record 2.75 billion bushels, driven by strong demand from Mexico, South Korea, and Japan — even without major purchases from China.
🌾 Sorghum: Shrinking Acres, Weak Demand
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Sorghum harvested area is down 365,000 acres, especially in Kansas and Texas.
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Exports remain weak and demand is sluggish.
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Stocks have doubled year-over-year, but global demand signals are mixed.
🍺 Barley & Oats: Mixed Supply Trends
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Barley: Imports and stocks are up, while farm prices drop to $5.30/bushel.
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Oats: Production sees a sharp increase due to higher yields and imports, but its impact on feed remains minimal given cheaper alternatives like corn.
🌎 Global Factors: Brazil Booms, Mexico Wilts
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Brazil is expecting its second-largest corn crop ever, fueled by its expanding ethanol sector.
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Mexico faces yield losses due to drought — which may increase import demand.
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China is reducing sorghum imports, shifting the dynamics of global feed grain trade.
🐖 What This Means for Pork Producers
Feed remains the biggest input cost in pork production. With tightening corn supply and strong export demand, price volatility and ration costs may rise through 2025/26. Stay informed, talk with your nutritionist, and consider locking in prices when favorable.
📥 Download the Full USDA Report (PDF):
Click here to download the July 2025 Feed Outlook Report (FDS-25g)
