Alberta Pork Weekly Report, January 11th 2024

By
Jim Eadie
-

 

Announcements, news and reminders

 

Information from Alberta Pork and our partners

 

Board director nominations – next week

This spring, four positions will be open on the Alberta Pork board of directors. Producers are encouraged to step up and nominate fellow producers by Fri., Jan. 19. See the nomination form.

Intensive Livestock Working Group position available

The Intensive Livestock Working Group (ILWG) is a unique partnership that functions as a strategic alliance representing the interests of the livestock/poultry industry in Alberta. The ILWG is currently seeking a new Executive Director. The application deadline is Wed., Jan. 31. View the posting.

Canadian Hog Journal – next month

The Winter 2024 edition of the Canadian Hog Journal will be published in February, featuring coverage of the Banff Pork Seminar, Porc Show and Saskatchewan Pork Industry Symposium, plus articles addressing industry profitability, food consumer trends, research and more.

For all editorial and advertising inquiries, please contact Andrew Heck at andrew.heck@albertapork.com. For all subscription inquiries, please contact Rawya Selby at rawya.selby@albertapork.com

‘Follow’ @HogJournal on Facebook and X for the latest content from across the pig and pork value chain!

Economics dashboard

 

Information from a variety of sources

View the latest economics dashboard

This information is current as of Jan. 9, 2023. This information is updated every week.

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Feed cost modelling

Supplied by Gowans Feed Consulting

View the latest feed price calculator

This information is current as of Dec. 8, 2023. This information is updated every month.

Grain prices declined over this past month across Western Canada given the domestic S&D outlook. Prices are expected to be at a bottom now while South American weather concerns are adding volatility to the global market. Global protein prices have also declined given the much-needed rain in Brazil and Argentina, as well as the US production outlook. Weather news will keep driving the market in the near term. Soymeal prices are expected to soften further by the end of Q1 2024.

  • Wheat prices are trading around $330-$340/T delivered to Red Deer/AB. Wheat prices could increase given that Canadian exports are moving 25% ahead of last year’s pace.
  • Barley is priced at $290-$295/T delivered to Red Deer/AB. Better than expected yields across the Canadian Prairies contributed to the downside trend. Prices could be volatile following the corn futures.
  • Corn prices declined and are trading at $340-345/T delivered to Red Deer/AB. FX and weather news will be key drivers moving forward.
  • Soybean meal prices declined to $800-$810/T. The short crop in Argentina is still adding support for prices but increasing global ending stocks could limit the upside trend.
  • Canola meal followed the soymeal futures and is priced at around $465/T delivered to Red Deer/AB.
  • DDGS is priced at $340-$350/T delivered.
  • Millrun prices are trading at $300/T delivered.

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Disclaimer: Gowans Feed Consulting presents the ingredient prices and feed cost modelling as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes online and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission. Gowans Feed Consulting does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any material contained in this publication.

Hog and pork price reporting

Supplied by Commodity Professionals Inc.

View the latest pork market report as a PDF

This information is current as of Jan. 9, 2024. This information is updated every week.

 

Pricing overview

Canadian domestic pork exports for November at 109.3 thousand MT were up +6.5% from the previous month and +9.2% over last year. Overall, export values for the same period increased +6.0% from October and +11.4% over a year earlier.

Total swine carcass and cut exports climbed +3.7% for November to 66.8 thousand MT, bringing current exports up +0.6% on the year. Overall values rose +4.7% on the month and +5.8% over year-ago values. For perspective, November’s value per unit of $3.86/KGM increased +0.9% from a month earlier and +5.1% over last year.

Belly exports were up +3.9% to 2.0 thousand MT in the latest data, bringing current exports +31.2% over last year’s particularly low trade. Belly export values were up +6.4% for November and +24.0% over last year. For perspective, belly values per unit at $7.16/KGM increased +2.5% from October but fell –5.5% compared to last year.

Pork shoulder exports dropped –18.0% for November to 64.5 thousand MT, however rose a staggering +97.9% over last year. For perspective, shoulder values per unit at $7.88/KGM fell –4.9% on the month and –17.6% compared to last year.

Edible swine offal increased +4.6% into November to 12.3 thousand MT, bringing them +18.6% over a year earlier. For perspective, swine offal values per unit of $2.48/KGM rose +5.2% from October and +3.1% over last year.

Notably, the percentage of Canadian pork production exported globally dipped to 47.5% in November, compared to the 12-month average of 58.0%. The percentage of Canadian pork production exported to the United States at 15.7% fell below the 12-month average of 18.7%.

Weekly hog price recap

Cash hogs varied during the week, with national cash buoying up and down while regional cash was higher in the front-half of the week and lower the back-half. CME cash was also mixed, with improvements recorded mid-week nearly offsetting declines remaining days. Wholesale pork primal values also varied however significantly stronger bellies, ribs and hams supported US pork cutout $1.14/cwt over a week earlier.

Monitored Canadian hog markets were generally as much as $4/hog on the week, excluding those derived from lagged base pricing. Hylife rose $4.40/hog higher from previously reported, while market hogs out of Quebec were up $3.85/hog. Ontario hogs improved $1.30/hog while those off the ML Sig 4 climbed $0.65/hog. Markets derived from lagged base pricing were lower with the OlyW 21 down $2/hog, the OlyW 20 $3.65/hog lower and BP4/TC4 $4/hog lower. In the US, Tyson hogs slipped $0.40/hog while JM hog values were down $1.10/hog from the previous week.

Weekly hog margins

Monitored hog margins improved on rising hog values and were further supported by a decline in feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs fell $1.50/hog while those in the monitored US region decreased $2/hog from a week earlier.

Hylife hog margins improved $1.50 to $15.85/hog losses on the week, while ML Sig 4 margins were up $2.15 to $27.40/hog losses and those out of Quebec strengthened $5.35 to $28.30/hog. OlyW 21 hog margins declined $0.50 to nearly $32/hog losses while OlyW 20 margins weakened $2.20 to just shy of $41/hog losses, and Ontario hog margins strengthened $2.80 to $41.20/hog losses. In the US, Tyson hog margins improved $1.55 to $49/hog losses while JM margins were up $0.90 to $57.85/hog losses for the week.

The market information below reflects the production cycle of the previous six months. In the table footnotes, “F:G” refers to daily feed-to-gain ratio, while “GMD” refers to grind mix delivery or manufacturing and delivery cost.

U.S. regional margins

  • Tyson: $(48.95) USD x 1.3391 = $(65.55) CAD
  • Morrell: $(57.88) USD x 1.3391 = $(77.51) CAD

Disclaimer: Commodity Professionals Inc. presents the ingredient prices and feed cost modelling as a snapshot of the market using current information available at the time of the report. These findings are for informational purposes online and should not be reproduced or transmitted by any means without permission. Commodity Professionals Inc. does not guarantee and accepts no legal liability arising from or connected to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any material contained in this publication.

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