Announcements, news and reminders

From Alberta Pork

Evaluating the merits of creep feeding

While creep feeding is a common practice in the pork industry, perceived benefits only occur if the creep feed is consumed. Research has shown how the practice has little impact on pre-weaning performance. Read the full article in the Fall 2021 edition of the Canadian Hog Journal.

Banff Pork Seminar – in-person and virtual

The Banff Pork Seminar returns from Tues., Jan 13 to Thurs., Jan 15, in-person and virtual. Early (lower-priced) in-person registration and virtual registration are now open. Register now.

Feed cost modelling

Supplied by Gowans Feed Consulting

View the latest feed price calculator

The information in this section of the Alberta Pork Weekly Report (this email) reflects the feed cost situation experienced at the time the section was last updated, on November 21, 2021.

The rollercoaster continues. Over the past few weeks, we have seen grains remain firm and protein prices ratchet up. It is important to note that ingredient prices as of Monday, November 15th were used in the feed cost modeling exercise and there most certainly will be changes to the market by the time the feed cost model is posted.

• We have seen offers for wheat climb in part due to a reduction in ending stocks in the most recent USDA supply and demand forecast with offers for Red wheat over $450 delivered in many cases
• Western Canada remains a big purchaser of US corn. Prices have climbed due to a combination of many transload facilities reaching capacity, a rise in futures prices and weakening of the Canadian dollar. Prices have been in the range of $395-400 for delivery in November and December while offers into the new year are closer to $385-390
• Barley price as of the time this report was generated was around $425/T although prices have risen approx. $5 in the past day
• Fabas are trading for $470-480 while feed peas remain $480+
• Soybean meal faces availability issues in part due to logistics challenges and offers over the past week have been anywhere from $600-640 with futures and basis firming
• Canola meal has followed a similar trend, as it is difficult to find offers for nearby delivery. Prices have moved to $420-440 while DDGS is trading in a similar range.

Hog supply and price reporting

Supplied by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)

View the latest hog supply report as a PDF

Information last updated November 27, 2021

Supplied by Commodity Professionals Inc.
View the latest pork market report as a PDF

The market information in this section of the Alberta Pork Weekly Report (this email) reflects the production cycle of the previous six months and pig pricing information at November 23, 2021.

Pricing overview

US federally inspected hog slaughter for the US Thanksgiving holiday week was reported at 2,261 thousand head: down -14.2% from a week earlier, -3.4% under last year and -1.4% year-to-date compared to the same weeks in 2020.

US sow slaughter for the week ending November 13th was up +0.4% from the previous week to 60,900 head, which is -7.9% compared to last year. Year-to-date, sow slaughter is up +2.3% compared to the same weeks in 2020.

Canadian sow slaughter was reported at 1,643 head for the same week, down -2.2% from the week previous and -7.5% under than the same week last year. Year-to-date, Canadian sow slaughter is -5.9% under last year-to-date however it’s worth noting that 2020 reflected a historically strong rate of slaughter.

With market hog slaughter and production hovering around 2018 levels and sow slaughter showing signs of tapering off to more historical levels, the liquidation phase, which has been recorded over the last 18-20 months since packers were forced to shut down in early 2020, is now considered over.  For now, sow expansion does not appear to be on the table, however North America sow numbers are likely to level off at current volumes which will also stabilize market hog volumes going forward.

Weekly hog price recap

Cash hog pricing continues to fall, with national cash down daily while regional cash managed to record a moderate improvement Tuesday. CME cash moved similarly to regional cash, however recorded heavier late-week declines in comparison. Wholesale pork values were mixed with bellies, picnics and loins lower on the week, however most primals also faced early-week declines. US pork cutout was down $4.55/cwt from the previous week’s average.

Weekly hog margins

Hog margins weakened significantly amid lower hog and pork values, and were further pressured by rising feed costs. Canadian farrow-to-finish feed costs jumped $4.50/hog while those in the monitored US region were up more than $2.25/hog from a week earlier.
Half of the monitored Canadian margins slipped to dollar per hog losses this week. Hog margins out of the Ontario weakened $10.25 to $10/hog losses, while the Sig 4 fell more than $8.25 to $5.75/hog losses and Hylife weakened more than $10.25 to $0.75/hog losses. The OlyW 20 & 21 each fell $7.75 to near $2.75/hog profits, while hog margins out of Quebec dropped $9 to $6.50/hog profits on the week. Hog margins in the US were also down significantly, with Tyson nearly $8 weaker to $19.75/hog losses and JM was $7 weaker to $31.25/hog losses.

U.S. regional margins

• Tyson: $(19.66) USD x 1.2707 = $(24.98) CAD
• Morrell: $(31.27) USD x 1.2707 = $(39.73) CAD