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The USDA continues to project an increase of 2.8% more pork to be produced in 2024 than 2023. Their premise is despite the worse 18 months financially in our industry’s history we were expanding. The unfortunate part is their delusional projections hang over the market and continue to depress prices.
Fact – we have gone four months in year. Pork Production year to date is 9.171.4 million lbs. last year 9.152.4 million lbs. The difference 0.2%. A long way from 2.8%. The only way we get to 2.8% year over year in the next eight months we will need to be over 4% year over year. As if it will happen.
In our opinion will have higher prices in the next few months than all lean hog futures indicate now. Why? Less hogs than USDA projects. Sow herd liquidation has not stopped, meaning even fewer hogs in the coming months. Hog weights were 2.9 lbs. heavier at the beginning of January year over year. A week ago, 1/10 of lb. heavier than a year ago. The 2.8 lb. decline can easily explain the 0.2% increase in pork production year over year. No industry expands while suffering record losses, the hog industry isn’t an exception.
