Source: “Global Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War in Agricultural Sector” by Enoch Adom, North Dakota State University (2021)
Publication Date: June 2025
🔍 Executive Summary
This report draws from Enoch Adom’s master’s thesis at NDSU, which used structural gravity modeling to analyze how the 2018–2019 U.S.–China trade war disrupted global agricultural trade—especially U.S. pork and soybean exports.
📌 Key Takeaways
1. U.S. Export Declines
Agricultural exports from the U.S. declined by an estimated 8.6%, with pork and soybeans among the hardest hit.
2. China’s Market Shift
China’s retaliatory tariffs caused a 17% drop in its own ag exports while driving significant import increases from Brazil, Argentina, and the EU.
3. Export Diversion Winners
China’s imports from alternative suppliers jumped from $7.2B to $13.2B in 2018—primarily at the expense of the U.S.
4. Soybean Sector Fluctuations
U.S. soybean exports to China dropped 38%, while Brazil gained both market share and higher prices.
5. Modeled Trade Dynamics
Adom’s model controlled for distance, tariffs, and trade agreements—showing how structural changes in trade policy reallocate global market share.
🐖 Implications for the Pork Industry
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High Sensitivity to Trade Risk
Pork producers tied to China are highly exposed to tariff-induced disruptions. -
Global Competition Heating Up
Countries like Brazil have seized opportunities to become long-term suppliers. -
Strategic Takeaways
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Diversify export destinations
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Monitor trade policy developments
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Invest in brand/value-added differentiation
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📚 University‑Sourced Authority
This analysis is sourced from a peer-reviewed thesis at North Dakota State University, adding academic weight to the observations and reinforcing Swine Web’s commitment to fact-based reporting.
💬 Swine Web Perspective
Tariffs are more than economic tools—they’re industry disruptors. This trade war didn’t just affect numbers; it reshaped supply chains, shifted loyalties, and emphasized the fragility of overdependence. The pork industry must think beyond borders—resilience and adaptability are now essential business strategies.
