The USDA’s Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: August 2025 offers a sobering look at the pork sector, where health pressures and tighter supplies are reshaping the year’s production and pricing outlook.
PRRSV Pressures Reduce Hog Numbers
July hog slaughter was estimated at 10.2 million head, nearly 4% lower than last year, and well below the pace implied in the June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report. The decline is being linked to unusually high levels of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome virus (PRRSV).
The second quarter of 2025 recorded the highest number of PRRS outbreaks in the wean-to-market phase since 2013. Historically, PRRS cases drop in summer months, but the persistence of outbreaks through June and July was described as atypical, curbing the supply of market-ready hogs.
Production Forecasts Tighten
With fewer hogs available and dressed weights trending fractionally lower, July pork output slipped to 2.2 billion pounds — a 4% year-over-year decline.
The USDA has now trimmed its 2025 pork production forecast by 1% to 27.7 billion pounds. Third-quarter production is expected at 6.8 billion pounds, slightly below last year, while fourth-quarter production is forecast at 7.3 billion pounds, a modest 1.6% increase over 2024 despite the recent health challenges.
Looking ahead, 2026 production is forecast at 28.4 billion pounds, a 2.3% increase over 2025 but still slightly weaker than earlier projections.
Hog and Pork Prices Strengthen
Lower supplies are supporting hog and pork prices across the board.
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Live hog prices averaged $78.20/cwt in July, up 16% from last year.
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Wholesale pork cutout values also rose, averaging $115.03/cwt, a 15% gain, led by strong demand for bellies.
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Third-quarter hog prices are forecast at $77/cwt, up more than 17% from 2024.
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Fourth-quarter prices are forecast at $67/cwt, still 6.5% higher year over year.
For 2026, hog prices are projected to ease back slightly, averaging $65.50/cwt for the year.
Export Markets: Mexico Dominates
U.S. pork exports rebounded in June, reaching 552 million pounds, a 5% year-over-year increase. Mexico was the standout buyer, taking 230 million pounds, up 22% from 2024 and accounting for 42% of total shipments. This surge helped offset weaker exports to Japan, South Korea, and Canada.
In the second quarter overall, exports totaled 1.699 billion pounds, down 4% from last year as strong U.S. pork prices reduced competitiveness against Brazilian and EU pork.
Annual pork exports for 2025 are forecast at 6.98 billion pounds, 2% lower than 2024. For 2026, shipments are expected to climb modestly to 7.0 billion pounds, representing nearly 25% of U.S. production.
Outlook
The August outlook highlights a swine industry under pressure from both animal health challenges and global competition. PRRSV outbreaks have clearly tightened domestic supplies, driving hog and pork prices higher. Strong demand in Mexico is supporting exports, but U.S. pork continues to face stiff headwinds in Asia due to high domestic prices.
For producers, the year ahead looks to be defined by tight margins, disease management, and navigating volatile trade flows. With production growth muted until at least 2026, the balance of supply, health, and export demand will be crucial in shaping profitability across the industry.
📄 Full USDA report: Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: August 2025 (PDF)
