The global pork industry is entering 2026 with a measured outlook, according to the latest analysis from Rabobank. While some headwinds are easing, the dominant theme is one of cautious growth paired with a renewed focus on productivity.
Key Insights for the Global Pork Sector
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The global sow herd is projected to decline in 2026 as many producers postpone expansion despite favourable margin environments.
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Global pork trade has grown modestly but remains under pressure from evolving export dynamics and disease-related disruptions.
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Price dynamics are diverging by region: tighter inventories in Europe and North America are driving price increases, while China is experiencing a steep drop due to efficiency gains and inventory rebuilding.
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Across the board, the priority is shifting from scale expansion to operational efficiency—feed conversion, carcass yield, stronger biosecurity and logistical improvements are now front-of-mind.
Implications for U.S. Hog Producers
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Re-evaluate expansion plans: If global supply tightens, margins may improve, but cost pressures (feed, labour, disease) remain high. Expansion should be strategic, not reactive.
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Double down on productivity: In an environment where growth is restrained, efficiency becomes the differentiator. U.S. producers should focus on leaner operations, improved genetics, and value-added marketing.
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Monitor export and trade shifts: As regions like Europe experience tighter supply, opportunities may open—but success will depend on product differentiation, market access and strategic positioning.
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Bolster disease management and biosecurity: Global disease events continue to ripple through trade and price structures. Robust prevention programs and monitoring systems are essential.
Bottom Line
For U.S. hog producers, the message is clear: scale alone won’t drive the next leg of growth. The global industry is signalling that productivity, health and market access will be the keys to competitiveness. Producers who act now by tightening their operations and focusing on value will be well-positioned for the coming cycle.
For more information, see the full Rabobank report:
Global Pork Quarterly Q4 2025 — Industry takes a cautious approach to growth with renewed focus on productivity
