Market Conditions and Profitability Outlook
Hog producers continue to experience favorable conditions through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. Several key factors are aligning to support profitability:
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Lower slaughter-ready hog supplies are tightening availability, forcing processors to bid higher prices to secure animals.
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Higher beef prices are lifting wholesale pork values well above year-ago levels, boosting overall market returns.
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Moderating feed costs due to strong U.S. grain and soybean harvest projections are reducing cost pressures on producers.
The September forecasts indicate large corn and soybean crops in 2025, which are expected to stabilize feed costs into 2026. Taken together, these conditions support strong farrow-to-finish margins moving forward.
Production Trends – Slaughter & Weights
Federally inspected hog slaughter in August totaled 10.1 million head, about 2.7 percent below last year. Average dressed weights were 209 pounds per head, down slightly from 210 pounds a year ago.
Third-quarter pork production has been revised down by 145 million pounds to 6.6 billion pounds, now 2.3 percent below the same quarter in 2024. Fourth-quarter production is projected at 7.29 billion pounds, 1.1 percent above last year but slightly lower than the previous forecast.
Total 2025 pork production is now expected to reach 27.6 billion pounds, a decline of roughly 1 percent compared to 2024.
Hog and Pork Price Projections
Strong domestic demand and tighter hog supplies are supporting historically elevated prices.
| Period | Price (Live Equivalent, $/cwt) | YOY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $77 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $69 | +10% |
| Q1 2026 (Forecast) | $65 | +2% |
| Q2 2026 (Forecast) | $70 | +3% |
The spot market premium over the negotiated carcass price suggests processors are paying above-average prices to keep kill schedules full, signaling ongoing tightness in hog supplies.
Demand Side: Consumer and Export Markets
Domestic demand for pork remains solid. Through mid-September, the pork cutout value averaged $114.51 per hundredweight, 21 percent higher than a year ago, reflecting strong product movement despite higher beef prices.
On the export side, July pork shipments totaled 552 million pounds, down 3 percent year over year. Shipments to Mexico, the top U.S. pork market, declined 11 percent, while exports to South Korea increased 23 percent.
July 2025 Pork Export Highlights (Million lbs):
| Country/Region | July 2024 | July 2025 | % Change | Export Share (’25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 235 | 210 | -11% | 38% |
| Japan | 83 | 82 | -1% | 15% |
| South Korea | 43 | 52 | +23% | 9% |
| Canada | 41 | 34 | -16% | 6% |
| China & Hong Kong | 38 | 32 | -17% | 6% |
| Other W. Hemisphere | 332 | 305 | -8% | 55% |
Key Takeaways for the Pork Industry
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Hog supplies remain tight, supporting higher prices and producer returns.
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Feed cost relief from projected record grain and soybean harvests should continue into 2026.
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Disease pressures in key producing states remain a factor for slaughter-ready hog availability.
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Export softness, particularly in Mexico, bears watching even as other markets remain steady.
Full Report Access
Download the full USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: September 2025 report here:
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