As Canada, the United States, and Mexico begin public consultations ahead of the 2026 review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), industry leaders are urging caution to protect one of Canada’s most important agricultural trade relationships.
Florian Possberg, Partner with Polar Pork Farms and a long-time industry voice, says the Canadian government must approach renegotiations thoughtfully—especially regarding its hardline stance on dairy supply management—which could jeopardize broader agricultural trade, including pork.
A Strong Trade Relationship at Risk
The CUSMA agreement has helped create an integrated North American pork supply chain. Canada exports over $5 billion worth of pork annually, with the U.S. as a key customer and partner.
However, tensions could escalate as U.S. negotiators push back against Canada’s protection of its dairy and poultry sectors. Possberg cautions that if these issues dominate negotiations, the pork sector—which relies on low-tariff access and seamless trade—could face collateral damage.
“We really can’t afford to have ideological decisions wreck a very good relationship,” Possberg notes.
“If supply management becomes a sticking point, there could be negative ramifications for grains, beef, and pork.”
U.S. Pressure on Supply Management Could Spill Over
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Canada’s dairy protections and is expected to renew that pressure heading into a potential second term. Possberg warns that trade leverage used in one sector could lead to retaliatory tariffs across the board.
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Potential Outcome: A blanket 15% tariff on agricultural products has been used by other countries to secure trade agreements with the U.S.
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Problem: Pork margins are too thin to absorb a 15% tariff while remaining competitive on the global market.
What’s at Stake for Pork Producers
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Market Access: The U.S. remains a top destination for Canadian pork.
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Feed Costs: Grain trade disruptions would directly impact producers’ cost of production.
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Market Certainty: Stability in trade agreements allows producers to make long-term investments.
“We have a very good case for zero tariffs going forward in pork,” Possberg says.
“But Canada’s position on dairy risks dragging pork into a dispute we can’t afford.”
Industry Call to Action
Possberg is encouraging the Canadian government to:
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Prioritize agricultural competitiveness over political ideology
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Preserve zero-tariff access for pork, beef, and grains
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Recognize the integrated nature of the North American hog sector
He emphasizes that renegotiation should strengthen, not undermine, one of the strongest agricultural trade relationships in the world.
Swine Web will continue to monitor consultations and negotiations closely, providing producers with the insights needed to navigate potential changes to trade policy.
For more industry analysis and policy updates, stay connected at SwineWeb.com.
