I’ve been warning the industry for years that reliance on exports was going to become an Achilles heel and that we certainly shouldn’t be counting on China for long term demand. Here’s a link to a video of me discussing this issue 3 years ago with Damian Mason on The Business of Agriculture Podcast. Here we are in 2025, and the warning lights are flashing brighter than ever. According to a recent Reuters article, Chinese demand for pork has “no more room to grow.” That should be a wake-up call for anyone still counting on Chinese pork imports and that’s before we even consider the very real possibility that Trade War II leads to a rapid decoupling of the world’s two largest economies.
The Party’s Over
Here’s the reality, plain and simple:
- China’s population is shrinking and aging rapidly, and its working-age population has been in decline for nearly a decade. Fewer people and an older population means less total demand, period.
- Economic growth has slowed and consumer confidence in China is shaky. Even middle-class families are tightening their belts.
- Per capita consumption has likely peaked. Meat consumption has reached levels we believe to be at or near peak levels and the distribution of plant and animal-based protein has re-stabilized. Furthermore, while still very culturally important, pork is losing ground to other proteins having never recovered fully after ASF.
- Food waste reduction has become a major priority for the Chinese government.
- Domestic production is improving. Despite a rocky road of consolidation, biosecurity failures, and government meddling, China’s pork producers are back on their feet and producing more pork more efficiently. We see this in the official statistics and it’s confirmed anecdotally with our Chinese clients. Self-sufficiency in pork is in sight and is a major strategic priority for the CCP.
- Political tensions aren’t going away. “Trade War 2” is already in motion, and pork is squarely in the crosshairs.
I’ll be blunt…China doesn’t need us anymore, at least not in the way they once did. And if they do need pork, barring a massive trade deal between the US and China (which is looking increasingly unlikely) it’s likely to come from Brazil, Europe, or even Russia before it comes from the United States. I’m not saying that China will not import pork, even if they are “self-sufficient” there are carcass utilization issues that mean pork products will flow into China indefinitely, but not at anywhere near the levels we grew accustomed to over the last decade.
Stop Chasing a Ghost
China is more than likely no longer a meaningful long term market for US pork. Yes, it was a gold rush for a few years. Yes, it helped us manage some oversupply issues when domestic demand got soft, but those days are over and it’s time we move on.
We’re still seeing a lot of “assumption stacking” in strategic planning…people assuming that:
- Pork demand will keep rising in China.
- China will keep importing to meet it.
- US producers will be the go-to supplier.
That’s three layers of wishful thinking. Pork demand will likely keep rising globally for some time albeit at a slower rate than in past, but it is set to stabilize or decline in key international markets including China due to population decline, population aging and shifts in consumer preferences. It is doubtful that losses in these traditional markets will entirely be replaced by emerging markets. Short and medium term, there are some attractive transitionary markets in SE Asia and Latin America. In the long term, Africa and parts of the Middle East are set to add a billion people to their population and there are some attractive potential markets there, but roughly half of those people will be Muslim and whether or not governments in those regions will be able to generate economic growth to sufficiently stimulate demand is far from certain. They also represent a tiny fraction of current trade relationships and little effort is being expended to develop them.
It’s not even certain that the US will remain competitive globally. If you believe the numbers coming out of Brazil, we are no longer the low-cost producer globally. Historically, Europe has had higher productivity, but much higher cost and Brazil had lower cost but poorer productivity. The productivity gap with Europe is widening and Brazil is arguably over-taking the US in productivity as well while maintaining competitiveness in cost of production. Brazil is a much more politically palatable supplier for China.
The most optimistic development for US pork competitiveness is Europe’s apparent desire to regulate themselves out of the market. While that would be appreciated by the US, when you’re plan is to hope for your competitor to give up, that’s never a good thing.
If you doubt our analysis of US pork’s global competitiveness, I suggest you watch this episode of the At the Meeting Podcast featuring Dr. Dermot Hayes.
Where Do We Go From Here?
We need to shift our thinking. Instead of reminiscing about the good old days of shipping tons of pork to China, let’s:
- Double down on domestic efficiency and cost control.
- Support export diversification into Southeast Asia and Latin America in the short and medium term and Africa in the long term…places with real population growth and demand potential.
- Invest in value-added products that appeal to premium buyers in stable markets at home and abroad…quality focus instead of quantity focus.
- Shore up demand at home among younger consumers and quit ignoring elderly consumers, the fastest growing demographic in the world.
- Get serious about demand forecasting that considers global demographic trends, not just historical trade flows.
The Chinese market was never going to be a forever solution. It was a useful bridge, nothing more. The future of pork lies in intelligently managing supply, serving a more fragmented and competitive global market, and building resilience into our business models.
We can’t build a future by looking in the rearview mirror. Our industry is facing major paradigm shifts. Most in the industry are barely even aware of these quickly emerging challenges, much less prepared for them. The good news is it’s not too late. There is plenty of time to prepare and the sooner we begin preparing, the less painful the transition will be.
About the Author: Todd Thurman is an International Swine Management Consultant and Founder of Swine Insights International, LLC. Swine Insights is a US-Based provider of consulting and training services to the global pork industry. To learn more about the company, send an email to info@swineinsights.com or visit the website at www.swineinsights.com. To learn more about Mr. Thurman’s speaking and writing, visit www.toddthurman.me
