The latest USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for March 2025 provides critical insights into the evolving pork industry. Key trends indicate shifts in production, pricing, and export demand, reflecting both domestic supply constraints and global market uncertainties.
Tighter Hog Supply Impacts Production
The first-quarter pork production forecast has been reduced to approximately 7 billion pounds, marking a significant 100-million-pound decline from the previous projection. This adjustment is due to lower-than-expected availability of slaughter-ready hogs, despite an increase in average dressed weights (217.3 lbs per head) compared to last year.
The decline in available hogs has had ripple effects across the industry, contributing to price fluctuations and increased volatility in processor margins.
Pork Prices Show Strength Despite Market Uncertainty
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February 2025 hog prices for live equivalent 51-52% lean hogs averaged $63.87 per cwt, up 15.6% year-over-year due to tighter supply.
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The wholesale pork carcass price rose 9.6% from last year, averaging $97.73 per cwt.
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However, market volatility remains a concern, with processing spreads experiencing sharp fluctuations, including a 23% drop in gross margins from week 7 to week 8 of February.
Looking ahead, second-quarter hog prices have been lowered by $1 per cwt to $65.00, reflecting expected softness in demand and continued market uncertainty.
Exports Off to a Slower Start in 2025
U.S. pork exports in January 2025 totaled 577 million pounds, a 2% decline from last year. The slowdown is largely attributed to higher U.S. pork prices, making American products less competitive internationally.
Key Export Market Trends:
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Mexico remains the top destination, increasing imports by 2% year-over-year.
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China and Hong Kong saw a 59% jump in imports, signaling renewed demand.
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Japan and South Korea, traditionally strong markets, saw declines of 23% and 19%, respectively.
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Western Hemisphere nations like Colombia and the Dominican Republic also imported less U.S. pork, continuing a trend from late 2024.
Given the slow start to exports, the 2025 pork export forecast has been reduced by 75 million pounds to 7.22 billion pounds, though still 1.5% higher than 2024 levels.
Industry Outlook: Supply Challenges & Market Adjustments
The pork industry is entering 2025 with tight hog supplies, strong domestic demand, and fluctuating export performance. While higher hog prices are supporting profitability in the short term, concerns about processing margins and global market competition remain.
Swine Web will continue monitoring key indicators shaping the industry, providing insights on how producers can navigate these evolving market conditions.
