Cepea – June 3, 2025
Cattle Market Update
In a shift that signals narrowing regional price differences, fed cattle prices in Brazil’s largest herd state, Mato Grosso, are now closely aligned with those in São Paulo. The gap between the two markets has been shrinking since late 2022, with April 2025 showing the smallest difference in nearly eight years—just 9.50 Reais per arroba (15 kg) in favor of São Paulo. For comparison, this gap stood at 22.20 Reais in April of the previous year.
While São Paulo still holds a modest lead, average prices in Mato Grosso even surpassed São Paulo during some trades in April. By May, the average spread reversed again slightly, favoring São Paulo by 12.30 Reais/arroba, but still far below the 20.10 Reais gap seen a year ago.
By the end of May, cattle prices showed signs of stabilizing after a steady decline since late April. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for fed cattle in São Paulo dropped 4% in May, closing at BRL 306.10 on May 30. Meanwhile, wholesale beef carcass prices in Greater São Paulo fell 6.6%, settling at BRL 21.38/kg.
Swine Sector Snapshot
Despite some late-month softness in demand, pork prices in May averaged higher than in April, thanks to gains in the first half of the month. However, as beef and chicken prices declined, pork’s price advantage narrowed, slightly impacting competitiveness in the protein market.
The usual dip in pork consumption near month’s end pressured prices downward, but the market retained momentum due to earlier strength.
Poultry Market Struggles Amid Bird Flu Fallout
Brazil’s poultry sector is reeling from the fallout of bird flu confirmations, with domestic chicken prices dropping significantly by late May. Export restrictions from 25 trade partners, including the European Union, have flooded the domestic market with excess supply.
Consumer demand dropped simultaneously, impacted by the typical slowdown in purchasing power at month-end. This combination has created a sharp downward trend in chicken pricing.
Export Volumes Decline
From May 1–24, Brazil exported just 19.9 thousand tons of chicken meat, marking a 9.6% decline from April and a 2% decrease year-over-year. The daily shipment average now stands at its lowest point since January 2025.
