The USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook points to a 1.3% increase in U.S. pork production for 2026, with volume forecast at 28.4 billion pounds, compared to 27.996 billion expected this year. While this represents positive momentum for the sector, producers should prepare for tighter margins due to lower hog prices and mixed export dynamics.
Production Trends and Price Outlook
The USDA attributes the production growth to modest litter size improvements and a steady flow of market hogs, even as farrowings trend flat to slightly negative. However, average hog prices in 2026 are forecast at $63.50/cwt, down 3.3% from 2025 levels. Increased pork availability and tempered global demand are expected to weigh on prices despite high beef prices offering some competitive protein support.
U.S. Pork Exports: Slight Growth, But Mixed Market Signals
Pork exports for March 2025 were strong, topping 641 million pounds, a 3% increase over the same period last year. Mexico remained the leading buyer, importing 220 million pounds—a 12% increase year over year. However, key Asian markets showed signs of softening: Japan was down 8% in March and 16% for Q1 overall, while South Korea saw a 12% monthly drop and a 15% quarterly decline.
In total, 2025 pork exports are projected at 7.1 billion pounds, slightly below 2024 levels. Looking ahead, 2026 exports are forecast to increase 1.2%, supported by competitive U.S. pricing and global protein demand. Exports are expected to account for 25.2% of total U.S. pork production, the same proportion as in 2025.
Key Takeaways for Producers
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Expect Lower Prices: Although production is increasing, a projected price drop will require producers to focus on efficiency and cost control.
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Export Markets Are Shifting: While Mexico strengthens its position as the top buyer, Japan and South Korea are trending downward. Western Hemisphere nations now account for 60% of U.S. pork exports, highlighting the importance of trade agreements and geographic advantage.
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Monitor Processor Margins: April data suggests processor spreads are narrowing, a dynamic that could impact packer demand and negotiation leverage.
📄 Full USDA Report (PDF): Download Here
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