Genesus Global Market Report
Paul A. Anderson
General Manager South East Asia / International Sales Manager, Genesus Inc.
Recovery of Thailand’s pig industry hits a snag. Rising feed costs, an uncontrolled ASF, and pig price curbing are hindering the recovery of the Thai pig industry. Corn and soybean meal prices have increased year-on-year by almost 50% as of May to THB 12.95/kg (USD 0.37) and THB 23/kg (USD 0.67) respectively.
Overall pig production costs in Thailand jumped to THB 98/kg (USD 2.84), according to Thai Swine Raiser Association, the national group of pig producers in the country. At the same time, the government is controlling live pig prices at THB 100/kg (USD 2.9). To top it up, price of weaned piglets (7kg weight on average) keeps on rising and has reached THB 3000 (USD 87) in May. All these factors are shying away medium and small-scale producers from restocking.
Producers also, fearing ASF transmission, refuse to introduce F1 replacement gilts. Instead, they instead select female commercial pigs to mate and reproduce, which in the long-term, it will hamper the productivity of pig production among those farms and increase their cost of production for the following years.
The number of new ASF cases seems to be declining, but it remains rampant in Thailand. The many farms already hit by ASF across the country are trying in vain to resume their business.
Motivation to move the pig business forward among producers is in decline. This will make pork shortage in Thailand exacerbated further.
The average live weight prices on a nationwide scale remain strong. As of end-March 2022, recorded price was 188 PhP per kg (USD 3.60); by end April it was 196 PhP per kg (USD 3.76). The Philippine price is one of the highest in the world. The key drivers for such phenomena are the following:
- It’s the real picture of the supply and demand balance post-ASF outbreak.
- The global effect of the high cost of feed raw material.
- High energy and transport costs are brought about by high fuel prices.
- There’s an abundance of disposable income/money going around because it is an election year.
Both local and imported frozen pork inventory are going down. The National Meat Inspection Service (NMIS) data as of April 11 shows a 16% decrease in inventory vs the previous week’s number and an 18% decrease compared to the previous month. A clear sign that there’s lesser volume going into the freezers.
Last year, the President has signed Executive Order #134, which modified the import duties on fresh, chilled, and frozen meat and at the same time allowed an increased minimum access volume. This will be in effect up to May 2022. But given the global pork scenario of increased pork prices, there seems to be a slow down in importations.
To quote from an article titled “NPPC: Philippines needs to extend lower pork tariffs” published in the National Hog Farmer on May 2nd, “Under the lower tariffs and higher quota, U.S. pork exports to the Philippines increased by nearly 79% in 2021, topping $204 million compared with $114.5 million in 2020. But with the expiration of the higher MAV, pork exports have dropped dramatically in the first two months of 2022, with the U.S. industry sending just $13 million compared with $28 million for the same period last year.”
Paolo Pacis, representant of the Meat Importers and Traders Association (Mita), said the government should retain lower tariffs on imported meat until end-December as prices of pork in international markets had surged by 50 percent and the price spike was projected to remain until the early part of 2023. This prompted an outcry from the local pork-producing sector, pleading with the government to restore the tariffs on imported meat products, arguing that the tariff cuts “did not significantly lower the price of pork,”. (Source: https://newsinfo.inquirer.net)
|April 2021||February 2022||March 2022||April 2022|
|Market Hogs (LW) PHP/kg||191||181||188||198|
|Culled sows PhP/kg||100||102||113||120|
The Department of Agriculture’s repopulation efforts thru their Project INSPIRE (Integrated National Swine Production Initiatives for Recovery and Expansion), is still ongoing. There is ample budget to support expansion and repopulation programs; but, according to pork producers that have already undergone preliminary interviews and evaluations, the hurdles are so high, and that the candidates will eventually lose interest in availing of the said government support program.
As of this writing, Universal Robina Corporation’s Robina Farms in the province of Bulacan is conducting a field trial for an ASF vaccine from Thailand’s Chulalongkorn University. As reported, the first part of the trial is already finished, and it has shown good results. The second phase will involve a challenge study which will commence in the next weeks. The management team of Robina Farms together with the Bureau of Animal Industry have already approached the Secretary of the Dept of Agriculture and presented initial data. If the trial will continue on its route to success, the team is asking for a grant to purchase the vaccines for local commercial farm use.
The price of the pig now is 54,000 – 57,000 vnd/kg in the North; 54,000 – 57,000 vnd/kg in the center; and 55,000 – 60,000 vnd/kg in the South. Nationwide average will be around 56,000vnd/kg. (USD 2.43) (Source: https://vietnambiz.vn)
According to data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in the first quarter of 2022, Vietnam exported 3.42 thousand tons of meat and meat products, worth $14.13 million, down 24.1% in volume and down 17% in value over the same period in 2021
According to the Department of Industry and Trade, in April, Vietnam’s import turnover of animal feed and raw materials was estimated at 125 million USD, up 5.6% over the previous month. In the first 4 months of 2022, the import turnover of animal feed and raw materials are estimated at 232 million USD, down 40.3% over the same period last year. (Source: http://nhachannuoi.vn)
From the beginning of the year until now, the price of animal feed has increased 4 times, while the hog price has only increased slightly. As a result, small farmers are facing a situation where the more animals they raise the more they lose, each live pig that is sold from the barn at this time can lose up to 500,000 VND or USD 21.70 (Source: http://nhachannuoi.vn)
ASFV Vaccine Candidate, ASFV-G-ΔI177L, has been selected for further development and commercialization, which includes a thorough assessment of its safety characteristics. Results showed that ASFV-G-ΔI177L inoculated in pigs 6–8 weeks of age is safe and lacks the ability to induce local and systemic disease. Although results are highly promising, the official release of an ASF vaccine is still to be announced.
(Complete study report: https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/14/5/896/htm#sec3-viruses-14-00896).