World Trade Outlook Relatively Unchanged While Brazil Makes Gains


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• Global pork production for 2023 is virtually unchanged from the April forecast at 114.8 million tons. Increases in the production forecast for China, Canada, and Brazil offset declines in EU, Japan, the Philippines, and Mexico. Despite mostly negative margins industry-wide, China production is higher on greater than previously expected slaughter as producers seek to reduce herds and maintain cash flow. EU production continues to wane due to pressure from environmental regulation, weaker consumption, and
relatively elevated feed costs. Philippines pork production is lowered 3 percent due to the expansion of African swine fever in key production regions.

• Global pork exports for 2023 are forecast 2 percent higher from the April forecast to 10.8 million tons as stronger shipments from the United States and Brazil more than offset declines from Canada, UK, and EU. Reduced EU pork supplies provide opportunities for the United States and Brazil to gain market share in several Asia markets including South Korea and the Philippines. Strong demand from China has benefited most major pork exporters year to date.