Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding international trade policies, live hog cash prices have remained strong and resilient, according to Paul Marchand, Senior Risk Management Analyst with HAMS Marketing Services.
Marchand says that while futures markets have felt some pressure due to threats of new tariffs from the Trump administration, the cash market for hogs destined for Canadian processing has stayed stable. He credits the resilience largely to the protections provided by the Canada-Mexico-U.S. trade agreement. Additionally, Mexico’s measured approach to avoid escalating retaliatory actions has helped maintain stability, a strategy Marchand attributed to the leadership of Mexican President Sheinbaum.
“The live hog pricing situation, specifically for market hogs delivered to federally inspected plants in Canada, has remained very resilient,” says Marchand. “Cash prices started the year at record highs for the first marketing week and generally followed a seasonal pattern, with a ramp-up into Easter and a slight pullback afterward. Despite this, pricing remains historically strong.”
He notes that while there is considerable uncertainty regarding potential future trade disruptions, tariffs have not yet had a direct impact on cash hog pricing. Trade flows and supply chains have, so far, remained intact.
Marchand cautions that the situation is still developing. “We’re very early into seeing if supply chains or contractual relationships are going to be affected in the coming weeks,” he said.
At this stage, the North American hog industry continues to watch closely for any significant developments that could shift market dynamics.
