Japan’s pork industry is poised for a year of relative stability in 2025, navigating through challenges such as inflation, evolving consumer preferences, and logistical constraints. According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s Livestock and Products Semi-Annual Report (March 2025), both domestic pork production and consumption are expected to remain steady, while imports may experience a slight decline due to elevated ending stocks and distribution hurdles.
Production Trends
In 2024, Japan’s pork production remained flat compared to the previous year, with a marginal 1% decrease in slaughter numbers offset by stable carcass weights averaging 79 kg. High feed costs—approximately 40% above 2020 levels—continued to pressure profit margins, yet farmers maintained herd sizes and focused on producing higher-quality carcasses. Notably, no significant disease outbreaks were reported in 2024, contributing to production stability.
Consumption Patterns
Pork consumption in Japan is projected to hold steady in 2025, as consumers increasingly favor pork over more expensive proteins like beef. Retail sales data indicates that per capita pork consumption remained at 7.6 kg in both 2023 and 2024. Inflation has led consumers to opt for more affordable cuts and frozen products, with retailers responding by offering a wider range of ready-to-cook pork items. The food service sector, particularly Chinese restaurants, experienced an 11% year-on-year increase in pork dish sales in 2024, driven by a 6% rise in customer visits.
Import Dynamics
Japan’s pork imports are anticipated to decline slightly in 2025, primarily due to substantial ending stocks accumulated in 2024. While demand for imported pork remains stable, the industry faces challenges such as limited cold storage capacity and a shortage of truck drivers. Importers are diversifying their sourcing to mitigate risks associated with supply disruptions and price volatility. In 2024, imports of Brazilian pork surged by 124% year-on-year, compensating for reduced imports from European suppliers affected by animal disease outbreaks.
Market Outlook
Despite economic pressures, Japan’s pork market demonstrates resilience, with stable production and consumption patterns. The industry’s adaptability, including strategic sourcing and product offerings tailored to consumer preferences, positions it to navigate the complexities of 2025 effectively.
