Figure 1: USDA Hogs and Pigs Report — Summary
Today the USDA published its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, an important measure of domestic supply. Every key item tracked in this report came in below consensus expectations. Overall, the report suggests that supply will remain limited versus prior expectations, which in turn may increase hog prices and compress spreads for producers such as TSN. It also could increase prices for companies that buy pork, such as KHC and HRL:
Source: USDA and Daily Livestock Report.
Figure 2: Total Hogs and Pigs
Source: USDA and J.P. Morgan.
Figure 3: Pig Crop (total number of pigs birthed)
Source: USDA and J.P. Morgan.
Figure 4: Pigs per Litter
Source: USDA and J.P. Morgan.
Figure 5: Hogs Kept for Breeding
Source: USDA and J.P. Morgan.
Figure 6: Hogs Kept for Breeding as % of Hogs Marketed
Source: USDA and J.P. Morgan.
Figure 7: Sow Farrowings (Birthings)
Source: USDA and J.P. Morgan. Note: USDA farrowing estimates are provided by quarter, not by month. We take these quarterly estimates and apply historical monthly trends to estimate monthly farrowing intentions.
