By Swine Web Staff | Source: USDA ERS – Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: June 2025 (LDP-M-372)
The June 2025 USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook paints a clear picture for U.S. pork producers: stable production, resilient domestic demand, slightly stronger hog prices, and headwinds in export markets.
🏭 Production Holds Steady
Pork production forecasts for 2025 remain unchanged at 28.0 billion pounds, up slightly from 2024 (27.8 billion pounds). May 2025 federally inspected (FI) hog slaughter totaled 10.4 million head, a 3% year-over-year increase after adjusting for calendar differences. That equates to approximately 2.2 billion pounds of pork, supported by modest gains in average dressed weights.
The outlook for 2026 pegs production at 28.37 billion pounds, suggesting consistent output growth despite export uncertainty.
💲 Hog Prices Tick Up on Protein Substitution
Despite the flat production outlook, hog prices are forecast to rise in 2025 due to:
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Robust domestic consumer demand
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Reduced beef availability
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Higher broiler prices, making pork a competitively priced protein
Key price forecasts:
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Q2 2025: $69.00/cwt
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Q3 2025: $74.00/cwt (+12.7% YoY)
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Q4 2025: $63.00/cwt
The annual average price is expected to hit $67.40/cwt, up 6.3% from 2024.
Looking ahead to 2026, hog prices are forecast to average $64.00/cwt, a 5% decline from 2025 as production and competition normalize.
📉 Pork Cutout Value Mixed
In May 2025, the wholesale pork carcass cutout averaged $99.38/cwt, slightly below May 2024 levels ($100.25/cwt). Notably:
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Bellies added value, up 19% YoY at $147.62/cwt
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Hams also contributed positively, likely due to strong demand from Mexico
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Loins and ribs dragged the cutout lower
This mixed performance signals segment-specific volatility, even as overall demand remains firm.
🌎 Exports Face Global Pressure
Pork exports are expected to fall to 6.95 billion pounds in 2025, down 2.3% from 2024. April 2025 saw a 11.1% year-over-year drop in export volume. Key takeaways:
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Mexico: Still the top market, but April exports fell 16.9%
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Japan and South Korea: Declines of 13.6% and 8.4%, respectively
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Colombia: A bright spot, with a 53.7% surge in exports
Competition from Brazil, especially in Japan and other Asian markets, is a growing concern. The U.S. is losing market share due to pricing pressure and shifting product preferences (e.g., frozen vs. fresh cuts).
The 2026 export forecast improves slightly to 7.0 billion pounds, offering a cautiously optimistic view of global recovery.
📊 Retail Consumption Trending Up
On a retail-weight basis, U.S. per capita pork disappearance is projected at 50.3 pounds in 2025, up from 49.9 pounds in 2024. This number is expected to climb further to 50.8 pounds in 2026, driven by:
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Competitive pricing vs. beef
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Strong retailer promotions
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Continued pork processing innovation
🧠 Swine Web Insight
While 2025 offers stability and pricing power, producers must stay nimble. The U.S. pork industry is facing:
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Tightening margins in export markets
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Demand shifts in primal cuts
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Global competition from lower-cost producers
However, the silver lining remains domestic demand, which continues to outperform expectations.
📄 Access the full USDA report here:
👉 LDP-M-372: Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook – June 2025 (PDF)
