Jim Long Pork Commentary, U.S. Pork Cold Storage, October 26th 2020

700

Jim Long, President and CEO Genesus Genetics

 

At the end of September, Pork in U.S. Cold Storage was down 22% from a year ago, 466,674 vs. 598,750 (1,000 pounds). This is quite positive for markets going forward. Less Pork in storage means buyers have less to pull from.

Other Observations

Last week the U.S. marketed 2,679,000 hogs, a year ago 2,690,000. The USDA Hogs and Pigs Report September 1st indicated 10% more hogs year over year. Almost 2 months gone and the hogs have failed to show up. Just like June USDA report, wrong, wrong, wrong. We doubt if anyone is keeping the hogs as pets.

Hog Market weights are running similar or lower than a year ago. If hogs backed up, we would expect year over year heavier hogs.

If in mid-August we had said U.S. Pork Cut-Outs would be in the 90’s in late October, most would have said that was “insane”. Fact is there are. A huge reflection of overall domestic and export demand despite weekly hog marketing’s in the 2.7 million range. If we can get 90’s now with 2.7 million it’s hard to believe that prices won’t be higher when weekly numbers go to 2.4 – 2.5 million in 2021.

We understand China back in market for split carcasses. Some plants geared up. This is a result of Germany losing China – Asia as an export market due to ASF.

The hogs going to market now were born in April. In our opinion everything from April to September created a scenario to lower the sow herd and production. As weeks go on, we expect to see year over year weekly hog numbers decline. This will be price supportive.

U.S. sow slaughter in September was 276,120 last year 238,300. An increase of 28,000. Year to date 2,508,400 a year ago 2,235,220. An increase of over 273,000 year over year. If anyone doubts there has been significant breeding her liquidation, they should review the sow kill. Also, from all we can observe sow death rates of 12% are at record levels, gilt retention has been low, and next to no new sow barns being built. Put it all together. Less sows to produce pigs.

The Chicken Little Economist who said in mid-August that the U.S. would produce more hogs in 2021 than 2020 had no clue what he was talking about. You have to wonder if there are vested interests tied to futures trading that see it in their interest to bad mouth the prospects of prices and supply to the detriment of hog producers but to the benefit of Big City future trading sharpies.

We hear about the benefit of the futures market. The U.S. has the only hog future market in the world. What’s the benefit? Most of the time U.S. has the lowest hog prices in the world. As my late friend Doug Maus often said, “Chicago: Las Vegas casino with no rules.”

“In the casino, the cardinal rule is to keep them playing and to keep them coming back. The longer they play, the more they lose, and in the end, we get it all.
– Samuel “Ace” Rothstein_Casino movie –

Join our Team

Sales Representative Minnesota

Due to the impending retirement of a 22-year employee of Genesus Genetics., an established and growing business in the swine genetics industry, is looking for an energetic self-starting person to join our sales team as a Representative in Minnesota.

The successful candidate will be responsible to assume and grow a customer base, collection of receivables, representing Genesus Genetics in a professional manner.

The ideal person for this job will have strong communication skills, pays high attention to detail, friendly and approachable with a good work attitude and be flexible and able to multi-task. Experience in the swine and/or agriculture industry is necessary.

Remuneration and benefits package is highly competitive and will be based on qualifications. Company vehicle is provided.

Please apply/submit your resume via email, to:

Tom Stinson, Director of US Sales

tstinson@genesus.com
+1 913-515-5411

Apply Now via Email