📊 Breeding Herd and Inventory Trends
The June 1, 2025, Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed the U.S. breeding herd at 5.979 million head, just slightly lower than March 2025 and about 0.5% below June 2024. This modest decline continues a trend that began in early 2024 when financial losses across the pork industry prompted producers to slow breeding herd expansion.
Key takeaways:
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The breeding herd has been at least 2.5% smaller during the first three quarters of 2025 compared to 2023.
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Pig crops, however, have increased year over year due to:
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Record-setting litter rates per sow.
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Higher average dressed weights, thanks to lower feed costs.
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These factors have allowed pork production to grow even with a smaller breeding base, showing strong productivity gains.
🏭 Pork Production Outlook
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Total 2025 pork production forecast: 28.0 billion pounds, up 0.9% vs. 2024.
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2026 pork production forecast: 28.5 billion pounds, up 1.6% from 2025.
Breakdown by quarters:
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Q3 2025 (summer): 6.9 billion pounds (+1.9% YOY), driven by slightly heavier market weights.
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Q4 2025 (fall): 7.4 billion pounds (+3.2% YOY), marking the seasonal production peak.
What’s driving it?
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December–February pig crop was fractionally smaller YOY, but higher weights will boost total output.
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March–May pig crop, processed in Q4, is 1% larger than last year, further adding to the supply.
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Despite fewer sows, producers are maximizing output per animal.
💲 Hog Prices and Market Conditions
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2025 average hog price forecast: ~$69/cwt → up 8.1% from 2024.
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2026 forecast: ~$65/cwt → down 5.6% from 2025.
Quarterly detail:
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Q3 2025: ~$76/cwt, +16% YOY.
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Q4 2025: ~$65/cwt, +3.4% YOY.
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Higher hog prices despite bigger supply suggest strong pork demand, likely supported by:
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Consumers reacting to high beef prices.
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Domestic pork demand outpacing export weakness.
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🌎 Export Situation
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May 2025 pork exports: ~565 million pounds → down ~4% vs. May 2024.
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Mexico: +4%
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Canada: -15%
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South Korea: -4%
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Japan: flat
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China: notably absent from the top 10 export destinations.
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2025 total pork export forecast: 6.97 billion pounds → 2% lower YOY.
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2026 forecast: ~7.0 billion pounds → a slight rebound (~0.4% up from 2025).
Challenges:
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Sluggish demand from key Asian markets.
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Absence of China as a major buyer.
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Modest strength in Western Hemisphere markets, led by Mexico, has not fully offset Asian softness.
🐷 Farrowing Intentions for Rest of 2025
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Q3 2025 (June–August): 2.974 million sows, 0.4% fewer than 2024.
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Q4 2025 (September–November): 2.946 million sows, 0.7% more than 2024.
Implications:
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Slight contraction in summer, but modest optimism going into fall.
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Litter rates and weights will continue to play a major role in determining production, even if sow numbers are flat.
🔍 Key Takeaways for Industry Stakeholders
✅ Productivity is saving the day – record litter rates and heavier carcass weights are offsetting a shrinking sow herd.
✅ Strong domestic pork demand is propping up prices, despite some export softness.
✅ Export markets, especially Mexico, remain vital but fragile, with Asian markets underperforming.
✅ Producers are cautious but not in full retreat; farrowing intentions suggest a wait-and-see approach.
✅ For 2026, expect slightly lower prices but continued production gains, if feed costs and disease pressures remain manageable.
📥 Click to Download Full USDA Report (PDF)
👉 Download USDA July 2025 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDP-M-373)
