Global pork production entered the third quarter of 2025 with positive momentum, as producers benefit from lower feed costs and efficiency gains. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent disease challenges continue to weigh heavily on global trade flows.
Production Gains
Favorable grain harvests and reduced input costs have created room for producers to expand output. Improved productivity, aided by precision management and automation, is adding further strength to production across key regions. These factors are helping stabilize margins at a time when producers continue to navigate volatile markets.
Trade Under Pressure
While production is trending upward, pork trade remains unsettled. Negotiations between the United States and China add uncertainty, with China reducing reliance on U.S. pork in recent years but still maintaining demand for certain products like variety meats. At the same time, Brazil’s export growth and Europe’s steady presence are reshaping the competitive landscape, creating intense pressure for market share worldwide.
Disease Concerns
Animal health remains a major factor in global supply. African swine fever continues to challenge producers in Asia and parts of Europe, while PRRS is creating ongoing issues in North America and Spain. Foot and mouth disease adds further risk to trade continuity, underscoring the need for constant vigilance and investment in biosecurity.
Feed Market Dynamics
Corn prices are trending lower thanks to strong crops, offering relief on feed costs. Soymeal prices, however, remain less predictable, with soy markets influenced by shifting biofuel policy and global demand. This creates opportunities for some producers while keeping risk on the table for others.
Outlook
The balance of 2025 presents both promise and challenge. Lower feed costs and productivity gains support stronger margins and potential herd growth, but trade disputes and health risks remain critical watchpoints. For producers, the months ahead will be defined by how well they can capture cost advantages while navigating the uncertainty of global markets.
