Source: USDA Economic Research Service
Key Impacts on Swine Industry
🌽 Corn: Record-High Supplies, Lower Prices
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2025/26 U.S. corn production is projected at an all-time high of 15.82 billion bushels, fueled by increased acreage (+4.7 million acres) and favorable weather trends.
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Total supply is projected at 17.26 billion bushels.
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Feed and residual use is set to rise by 150 million bushels, driven by lower corn prices and increased inclusion in livestock rations.
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Export forecasts are raised for both 2024/25 and 2025/26, citing global demand and weaker competition from Argentina and Brazil.
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Farm price forecast: Corn prices are expected to fall to $4.20/bushel in 2025/26—down 15 cents from 2024/25. This drop benefits swine producers looking for more cost-effective feed options.
🍺 Barley: Supplies Up, Feed Use Down
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2025/26 barley production is slightly higher at 147 million bushels, but feed use is expected to decline by 10 million due to lower competitiveness with corn.
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Barley’s farm price is projected at $5.30/bushel, down from $6.50 last year.
🌾 Sorghum: Surge in Export Demand (China)
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U.S. sorghum exports are projected to more than double to 250 million bushels in 2025/26, with strong interest from China.
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Feed usage is declining, again due to cheaper and more abundant corn.
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Sorghum’s tighter stock-to-use ratio (9.5%) could keep prices slightly firmer despite a record corn crop.
🌱 Oats: Declining Production and Use
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Oats production is projected to drop due to lower planted acreage and yields.
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Feed use is expected to decline by 25 million bushels year-over-year, again driven by favorable corn prices.
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Oats price projected at $3.10/bushel, the lowest since 2020/21.
🌎 Global Outlook
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Global coarse grain production, including corn and sorghum, is forecast to hit a record high.
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Corn production increases are expected in the U.S., Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine.
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China is set to increase imports of coarse grains, particularly sorghum, benefiting U.S. exports.
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Global corn trade remains competitive, but the U.S. remains the top exporter.
🐖 What This Means for Swine Producers
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Lower corn prices and strong supply outlooks are favorable for feed cost management in swine operations.
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Feed rations may shift further toward corn, reducing reliance on other grains like barley and oats.
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Export dynamics, particularly involving China, may impact availability and pricing for sorghum.
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Monitoring weather trends and planting progress will be critical as the growing season unfolds.
For more updates and implications on feed markets impacting the swine sector, stay connected with Swine Web.
