A newly released report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts strong growth in global consumption of animal-source foods over the next decade, with significant implications for pork producers worldwide.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034 projects that as incomes rise across middle-income countries, demand for meat, dairy, eggs, and fish will climb sharply — with per capita calorie intake from these sources expected to rise 6% globally and an impressive 24% in lower-middle-income countries.
“This is an encouraging sign for global nutrition and food security, but it also signals opportunities and challenges for livestock sectors, including pork,” said FAO Director-General QU Dongyu.
Key Takeaways for the Pork Industry
✅ Rising Global Demand:
By 2034, average per capita intake of animal-source foods is projected to reach 364 kcal/day in lower-middle-income countries, well above the FAO’s 300 kcal benchmark for a healthy diet. Low-income countries, however, will lag behind at just 143 kcal/day, highlighting ongoing disparities.
✅ Production Expansion:
Global meat, dairy, and egg production is expected to grow by 17%, driven mainly by productivity gains in middle-income countries. Total livestock inventories — including pigs, cattle, sheep, and poultry — will expand by 7%. For pork producers, this means growing demand paired with pressure to improve production efficiency.
✅ Environmental Impact:
While output will rise, direct agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to increase only 6%, reflecting a gradual decline in emissions intensity. But with investments in emissions-reducing technologies — like precision farming, enhanced feed strategies, and manure management — global GHG emissions could be reduced by 7% below current levels.
✅ Feed and Cereal Competition:
By 2034, 33% of global cereal production will go to animal feed, with another 27% directed toward biofuels and industrial uses. This creates a competitive landscape for feed resources, making efficiency and feed conversion critical for swine operations.
✅ Regional Growth Engines:
India and Southeast Asian countries are projected to account for 39% of global consumption growth, signaling major export and investment opportunities. Meanwhile, China’s share of consumption growth is expected to decline to 13%, down from 32% over the past decade, reflecting its shifting protein markets.
Challenges for Smallholders and the Global Swine Sector
While the outlook is positive for global protein demand, the report warns of challenges, particularly for smallholder farmers. Lower commodity prices driven by productivity gains may squeeze margins, and small producers may struggle to access the innovative technologies needed to stay competitive.
The report calls for policies that support farmer access to markets, technology adoption, and sustainable production practices — all crucial for ensuring that pork producers of all sizes can benefit from growing demand without increasing environmental pressure.
Pork Producers at the Center of Global Food Security
For the global pork sector, the next decade will require balancing opportunity with responsibility. As middle-income nations fuel growth in animal protein consumption, pork producers will play a pivotal role in delivering affordable, nutritious protein while meeting sustainability and emissions goals.
With roughly 22% of all calories projected to cross international borders before final consumption, open trade flows, innovation, and coordinated sustainability efforts will be essential to keeping pork and other animal proteins at the center of global food security.
Read the full report:
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034
Stay tuned to Swine Web for continuing coverage on global market trends, trade dynamics, and sustainability developments shaping the future of pork production.
