As the first formal review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) approaches in July, pork producers across North America are bracing for potential impacts—especially the possibility of new U.S. tariffs on Canadian agriculture.
Florian Possberg, Partner at Polar Pork Farms, says the U.S. political landscape is shaping expectations. He notes that U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly pushed for a baseline 15% tariff on foreign goods in recent global trade discussions. If that approach carries into the CUSMA renegotiation, it could disrupt one of the pork sector’s most critical trade corridors.
Free Trade Has Been Essential for Pork Movement
Possberg emphasizes that under CUSMA, both live hogs and processed pork products have flowed freely across borders without tariffs. This freedom is especially important given the highly integrated nature of North America’s pork supply chain.
“Mexico is a major buyer of pork—primarily from the U.S. but also from Canada,” he says. “A lot of our products move across the border for processing, then move back again. The free trade agreement has been absolutely critical for that flow.”
The best-case scenario, he adds, is that tariff-free access continues unchanged.
The worst case? A 15% tariff that would make cross-border pork trade economically impossible.
A 15% Tariff Would Be a Non-Starter
Possberg is blunt: the sector does not have the margin to absorb such a hit.
“If we end up with a 15% tariff on agricultural products entering the U.S., that’s a deal-breaker. We don’t make a 15% profit.”
For now, producers in both countries are left waiting. The renegotiation could maintain the current benefits—or disrupt a decades-long integrated supply chain.
What’s clear is that uncertainty will hang over the sector until the agreement is settled.
