A senior economist with Farm Credit Canada says consumer demand for pork — both at home and abroad — along with ongoing trade dynamics, will play a key role in determining hog prices through the remainder of 2026.
According to FCC’s newly released 2026 Hog Outlook, 2025 proved to be a solid year for Canadian and North American hog sectors, with 2026 expected to deliver similar stability. Strong consumer demand and relatively favorable market fundamentals are providing support, though trade-related uncertainties remain an important watch point.
Domestic Demand Supporting the Market
Justin Shepherd, Senior Economist with Farm Credit Canada, notes that pork has performed well at retail over the past several years. Compared to other proteins, pork has experienced lower price inflation over the past three to four years than beef and chicken, making it an attractive option for consumers.
That affordability advantage has helped maintain steady grocery demand in North America, contributing to overall hog price support.
Trade Access Remains Critical
From a global perspective, export access continues to be a central issue for Canadian producers.
Shepherd points to continued free trade with the United States as a stabilizing factor. While CUSMA renegotiations are expected mid-year and could influence the broader trade landscape, current market access into the U.S. remains intact — a critical pillar for Canadian pork exports.
However, China’s 25 percent tariff on Canadian pork remains a concern. The tariff continues to influence where specific pork cuts are marketed and adds complexity to export strategies. Shepherd suggests that resolving this issue would provide meaningful support to the sector.
Policy and Market Watch Points
Another development to monitor is the implementation of voluntary country-of-origin labelling (COOL), which came into effect January 1. So far, no significant demand shifts have been observed in the hog sector. However, Shepherd cautions that its impact could become more pronounced if U.S. hog production rebounds strongly once domestic disease pressures are brought under control.
If U.S. production expands and supply increases, policy measures such as voluntary COOL could carry greater weight in influencing purchasing patterns.
Outlook for the Year Ahead
While trade uncertainty has been prominent in headlines, Shepherd indicates that producers have relative clarity in the short term regarding the policy environment they are operating within. Barring major changes, consumer demand and export access will remain the primary drivers influencing hog prices through 2026.
For producers, that means continued attention to global trade developments, retail demand trends and supply dynamics across North America will be essential as the year unfolds.
Swine Web will continue tracking developments impacting hog markets, trade policy and producer profitability throughout 2026.
