A newly announced trade agreement between the United States and China made headlines this week — but notably did not include pork, raising questions about China’s current supply, long-term demand, and how U.S. markets may react.
According to market insight from DATCP Livestock and Meat Specialist Jeff Swenson, hog markets showed mixed performance to start the week. Lean hog futures finished Monday and Tuesday stronger, but momentum has been difficult to maintain.
Market Snapshot
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Cash hogs: Down 90 cents last week, averaging $87.36/cwt, well below the +$100 levels seen in late summer.
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Pork cutout: Closed last week at $98.98, offering some support but not enough to spark a broader rally.
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Harvest numbers: Last week’s estimated harvest reached 2.633 million head — the largest weekly total of the year, up 61,000 from the prior week and 33,000 from last year.
Why Was Pork Left Out of the China Agreement?
Pork’s absence from the U.S.–China announcement has analysts watching China’s domestic situation closely.
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China’s pork production appears to have recovered from disease-driven disruptions.
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Low hog prices in China suggest ample supply and reduced import needs.
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China’s emphasis on soybeans over pork may indicate they currently need feed ingredients more than additional meat.
While one week does not make a trend, both the large U.S. harvest and China’s muted interest in pork imports could shape short-term pricing and export expectations heading into late 2025.
Swine Web will continue monitoring developments, market shifts, and their implications for U.S. producers.
