China, home to half of the world’s pigs, increased pork production by 7% in the third quarter of 2025 as producers accelerated slaughter to combat a growing supply glut. The move has driven hog prices to multi-year lows and is signaling further market volatility in 2026.
Record Output Amid Oversupply Pressures
New data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates pork production reached 13.48 million metric tons from June to September, driven by efforts to curb overcapacity. Producers are moving pigs to market earlier and at lighter weights to reduce financial loss.
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Hogs Slaughtered (Jan–Sept): 529.9 million head (+1.8% YoY)
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Cash Hog Prices: 11.2 yuan/kg ($1.57 USD) – down sharply from 17 yuan/kg one year ago
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Total 2025 Year-to-Date Output: 43.68 million tons (+3% YoY)
According to Rabobank analyst Pan Chenjun, the production surge is a short-term corrective response with long-term implications:
“Accelerated slaughter is being used to reduce overcapacity, but it is also pushing prices down further. The herd contraction will not be felt until mid-2026.”
Breeding Herd Begins to Contract
China’s sow herd declined 0.7% year-over-year to 40.35 million head but remains above the government’s “normal” target of 39 million. Authorities are tightening credit, reducing subsidies, and asking major firms to:
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Limit hog weights to approximately 120 kg
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Reduce breeding sow inventories
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Improve herd efficiency to control price collapse
What This Means for North American Producers
China’s market is often viewed as a bellwether for global pork trends. Its overproduction and collapsing prices reflect a classic boom-bust cycle and may foreshadow:
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Lower Chinese imports in early 2026
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Potential increase in export opportunities mid-to-late 2026 as herd contraction takes hold
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Continued global price pressure in the short term
Looking Ahead
Rabobank forecasts a more pronounced herd reduction by mid-2026, creating potential market openings for North American pork exporters. However, with China currently focused on self-sufficiency, international producers should prepare for continued volatility.
China’s current actions are a clear signal: the global pork market is entering a restructuring phase. Strategic positioning now could determine competitiveness in 2026 and beyond.
Stay tuned to Swine Web for ongoing analysis and producer-focused insights into global trends shaping your bottom line.
