While Brazil’s cattle sector is enjoying a margin rebound driven by surging fed cattle and calf prices, the pork industry is facing a more complex pricing environment—competing with both falling chicken values and a firm beef market.
According to Cepea’s latest report, margins in Brazil’s cattle sector jumped significantly over the past year, despite rising production costs. The margin per arroba (a Brazilian weight unit) in the calf stage rose 81.6% year-over-year, while backgrounding and fattening stages saw a 98.5% boost. These gains were largely fueled by tight supply and stronger beef export volumes, pushing fed cattle prices up 36% and calf prices up 40% from May 2024 to May 2025.
Pork: Competitive Against Beef, Pressured by Chicken
In contrast, pork prices in Brazil experienced a volatile June. While pork values did recover somewhat by the end of the month, earlier declines in late May and early June kept the monthly average subdued. In the wholesale market of Greater São Paulo, pork maintained competitiveness against beef but lost ground to chicken meat, which fell more sharply in price due to export restrictions related to bird flu.
However, the pork sector may gain some relief from shifting dynamics in poultry.
Poultry: Prices Stabilize as Brazil Regains Bird Flu-Free Status
Brazil’s poultry industry received a boost on June 18 after regaining bird flu-free status, leading to the reopening of exports to 16 countries. Although June’s chicken meat exports were still down 22% from a year ago, signs of recovery appeared mid-month, with export volume increasing 5% week-over-week in the second half of June.
Despite softer domestic demand due to economic pressure, firm chicken prices are helping to stabilize the protein market overall—potentially lifting pork’s relative value if the poultry rally holds.
🐖 Looking Ahead for Pork Producers
For swine producers, the current market reflects both opportunity and challenge. While pork is regaining competitiveness against beef and showing resilience, the shadow of poultry volatility and cautious consumer spending continues to weigh on prices. Export performance and domestic demand recovery will be key factors to watch heading into Q3.
