The risk of a 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian imports—including pork—appears to be diminishing, offering a welcome sigh of relief for Canadian producers eyeing the American market.
Earlier this year, the Trump administration approved broad-based 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect February 4. A last-minute 30-day delay postponed the action, followed by more trade flare-ups with 75 other U.S. partners in April. This rattled nerves across North America’s ag sectors, particularly in export-dependent industries like pork.
But now, with signs of improving diplomacy—especially following a U.S.-U.K. trade agreement—there’s renewed hope for stability.
Dr. Jon Gerrard, former Manitoba Liberal Leader and long-time advocate for ag trade, believes the situation has improved.
“Mark Carney’s leadership as Prime Minister seems to be helping. He’s developing a working relationship with Donald Trump that’s built on mutual respect,” said Gerrard. “The harsh rhetoric has toned down, and while it’s still tense, the chance of a full-blown 25% tariff—especially on agricultural products—feels much lower than it did earlier this year.”
For pork producers, this means a potential reprieve from what could have been a devastating trade barrier. The U.S. remains Canada’s most important pork export market, and any disruption would ripple through the industry from farm gate to processor.
Still, Gerrard advises caution.
“There’s a lot of back-and-forth to come in the months ahead,” he said. “While we may hold onto U.S. access, we need to aggressively pursue and grow global markets to protect our future.”
Bottom line: For Canadian pork producers, the trade forecast is improving—but diversification remains essential. The industry should remain engaged, informed, and ready for continued shifts in the cross-border trade dynamic.
Stay with Swine Web as we track this evolving story.
