Genesus Global Market Report Canada April 2022
Spencer Long, Genesus Inc.
The pig price remains strong, with the current price in Ontario right around 67¢ U.S. liveweight a lb. This is positive as we head into the summer months, as total pig numbers continue to remain lower.
Corn and wheat prices are still high, cutting into profitability. Statistics Canada released survey-based estimates this week that show more wheat and corn acres being planted. Total wheat area is estimated to rise by 7.2% to 25 million acres and corn is expected to increase 6.4% to 7 million acres. What impact these projected numbers of acres planted on the actual future prices remains to be seen.
Will China buy as much wheat as past years? Will Ukraine and Russia be able to largely export their wheat? What impact will the later planting in Canada due to weather have on total acres?
The weather in Ontario has not been conducive for planting yet. It has been wet and a very up and down temperature this spring thus far. This has put farmers behind and tension higher. Due to these cool temperatures, haven’t been able to accurately assess the winter crops yet either.
Western Canada’s drought last year was extremely challenging for many. The heavy snowstorms that brought multiple feet of snow to Manitoba in late April have provided positive sentiments for farmers looking at the summer. Hopefully, this extreme moisture is able to provide much of the region with slowly soaked in soil. On the flip side of this, planting has been pushed back due to the heavy moisture, which could impact total planted acres.
Olymel has announced a reduction of the flow of Ontario hogs coming through to their plant in Quebec. This reduction will inevitably lead to hogs needing to be sent to other plants going forward. With the Conestoga and Sofina plants in Ontario at or near capacity, these excess hogs from the Olymel plant will need to go out of province. Good news for packers south of the border that are looking for hogs. With the lack of investment in processing hogs further, the chance of expansion or growth in Ontario hog production is slim. The industry can’t grow if processing capacities don’t increase. It’s been good that US packers have been short of hogs or things could get really interesting up here.