Restaurants Canada has revised its 2025 forecast downward, projecting a contraction in Canadian commercial foodservice sales due to escalating trade tensions with the United States. The updated outlook predicts a decline of 0.4% to 1.5% in 2025 and up to 1.4% in 2026, in sharp contrast to earlier growth expectations.
While a temporary GST/HST holiday gave the industry a brief lift—with January foodservice sales up 7.5% and employment reaching 1.18 million—the trade war’s ripple effects have taken hold. Canadian restaurants report plans to cut non-essential spending, raise menu prices, and delay capital investments, which could ultimately reduce demand for pork and other proteins.
Why It Matters to Canada’s Pork Sector:
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🍽️ Restaurant Contraction = Lower Pork Throughput: Foodservice remains a critical sales channel for Canadian pork, especially for premium and specialty cuts. Reduced restaurant activity could pressure demand and influence pricing.
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📉 Weaker Consumer Confidence: Rising unemployment and policy-driven immigration slowdowns are dampening overall consumer spending, adding stress to both retail and foodservice pork sales.
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🧾 Policy Uncertainty: Restaurants Canada is calling on the new federal government to permanently remove GST/HST on restaurant meals, eliminate tariffs on food-safe packaging, and ease interprovincial trade barriers—but these changes remain to be seen.
A Call to Action for the Federal Government
Kelly Higginson, President and CEO of Restaurants Canada, emphasized the importance of tax policy in protecting jobs and small businesses:
“We now have definite proof that the GST/HST holiday boosted sales and created jobs in the foodservice sector while preventing bankruptcies. The federal government must act by removing tax from all food permanently.”
Restaurants Canada also urges action on broader economic policies, including EI payroll relief and exemption of food from retaliatory tariffs, especially as restaurants remain vulnerable to global supply chain shocks.
What’s Next?
With commercial foodservice sales in Canada now forecast between $98 billion and $99 billion, down from a projected $100 billion, the pork industry must stay alert to shifts in demand. Close monitoring of foodservice activity, consumer trends, and federal response will be critical in managing supply chain expectations.
Swine Web will continue to track how these economic changes affect Canadian pork producers and processors.
