Home Canada East Swine News Analysis: USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report — Q4 2021

Analysis: USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report — Q4 2021

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NPB hosted a webinar following the report release to help pork producers understand the publicly available information.

USDA released a Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on Dec. 23. This report shows U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs as of Dec. 1.

  • Inventory of all hogs and pigs was 74.2 million head, down 4% from last year, and down 1% from Sept. 1, 2021.
  • Breeding inventory, at 6.18 million head, was up slightly from last year, but down slightly from the previous quarter.
  • Market hog inventory, at 68 million head, was down 4% from last year, and down 1% from Sept. 1, 2021.
  • The December 2021 to February 2022 farrowing intentions are up slightly from last year at nearly 2.94 million sows, and down 8% from the same period two years ago.
Analysts offered their pre-report estimates prior to the official report publishing on Dec. 23. This chart shows the variance in the analyst averages (in black) and the actual results (in orange). Data indicates the results were bullish across all production statistics.

Hogs and Pigs Report Guest Economists

The National Pork Board hosted a webinar for pork producers following the report release and invited analysts to share insights about the report.

Pork Checkoff funds are used to host this webinar to help pork producers understand the publicly available information. The goal is to add value to the pork industry and ultimately to consumers by providing a better understanding of the economics of pork production.

Dr. Steve Meyer — Partners for Production Agriculture

Dr. Steve Meyer provided an overview of the pre-report estimates by Partners for Production Agriculture analysts.

“There was a pretty healthy increase in pigs saved per litter at 11.19 up 1.3%. Analysts thought that number would be just 0.5%.”

Audio of Dr. Steve Meyer — Partners for Production Agriculture

Bob Brown — Independent Market Analyst

Bob Brown covered the data revisions that the USDA released as part of this Hogs and Pigs report.

“USDA revised data all the way back to 2019. December inventory from 2019 was revised downward 1.4 million head. The March 2020 inventory was revised downward 1 million head and the June 1, 2021, revised down 1.25 million head. The reason USDA makes revisions is to true up to what hog slaughter was and to what the current survey showed them.”

Audio of Bob Brown — Independent Market Analyst

Dr. Ron Plain — University of Missouri

Dr. Ron Plain, professor emeritus in agricultural and applied economics at the University of Missouri, shared a comparison of his own estimates to the report results.

“This was a positive pig report by my estimation. One of the reasons is market hog inventory was not only lower than a year ago, but it was also lower than expectations.”

Audio of Dr. Ron Plain — University of Missouri

David Miller — Decision Innovation Solutions

David Miller, chief economist at Decision Innovation Solutions, discussed different states’ breeding herds and how they were affected by growth or decline in numbers this year.

“You’ve got the biggest states with the breeding herd, Iowa and North Carolina, having two consecutive years of decline. But Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota and Nebraska are all showing increases.”

Audio of David Miller — Decision Innovation Solutions

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