Global Pork Quarterly Report Q4 2024: Stabilizing Profits and Strategic Caution
In the latest RaboResearch Global Pork Quarterly report, the global pork industry continues to see stabilization in profitability, although producers remain wary of rapid expansion. Several key challenges are influencing this cautious approach:
- Profitability and Production Adjustments: While improved profitability has slowed herd reductions across most regions, factors such as disease outbreaks in Europe, South Korea, and Southeast Asia limit rapid production growth. U.S. and EU producers face additional constraints due to slaughter limits and regulatory pressures, respectively.
- Market and Trade Dynamics: Political and trade uncertainties are expected to shape the pork industry in 2025. Shifts in administrations in key markets (Mexico, Japan, U.S.) and China’s recent anti-dumping actions against the EU could hinder exports. Trade disruptions from weather and labor shortages have highlighted the need for domestic demand-building strategies and diversified markets to ensure long-term stability.
- Feed Cost Variations Due to La Niña: Lower corn and soymeal prices have offered margin relief, especially in North America, while tight wheat supplies keep costs elevated elsewhere. The ongoing La Niña pattern poses a risk for regional feed production, particularly in South America and Asia, which may lead to uneven cost pressures across markets.
- Regional Highlights:
- North America: Large pork supplies, improved productivity, and lower feed costs contribute to stronger producer returns.
- China: Despite softening hog prices, producer confidence is buoyed by economic stimulus, with moderate herd growth expected in 2025.
- Europe: Tight supply conditions and regulatory constraints may push pig prices upward, though export challenges persist due to potential trade barriers with China.
- Consumer Demand Outlook: Inflation has impacted consumption trends, though signs of recovery are seen in North America, parts of Europe, and Brazil. Seasonal demand should boost pork consumption in Q4, but economic challenges remain in regions like Japan.
- Global Pork Exports: Export volumes are expected to rise, with U.S. exports seeing growth in Asian markets, while Canada has increased exports to South Korea and Japan due to decreased EU competition. China’s consumption and import levels are expected to remain steady, pending outcomes of the anti-dumping probe on EU imports.
In summary, while the global pork market is benefiting from a return to profitability, industry players are exercising caution in expansion decisions. Producers are focusing on biosecurity, market adaptability, and cost management as key strategies to navigate the challenges ahead in 2025.
For more details, visit the full report here.