Source: RaboResearch Q2 2025 Report | Compiled by Swine Web
As the global pork market navigates through ongoing trade disruptions, disease outbreaks, and economic uncertainties, the latest Q2 2025 report from Rabobank highlights a rebalancing in global pork trade—and a tightening supply environment that will test producers worldwide.
Trade Disruptions Reshape Global Pork Flows
Heightened geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China is creating ripple effects across the pork export landscape. Although a temporary tariff rollback between the two countries offered brief relief, new retaliatory tariffs are expected to limit U.S. pork exports to China moving forward.
This development opens the door for competing exporters in Europe, Brazil, and Chile to gain market share, especially in China—the world’s largest pork importer—even as it continues to pursue self-sufficiency.
“The redirection of trade will pressure U.S. offal values and limit investment in expansion,” says Christine McCracken, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein at Rabobank. “Meanwhile, exporters in the EU and Latin America stand to benefit from increased Chinese demand.”
Price Recovery Amid Uncertainty
Despite these shifting dynamics, pork prices are on the rebound, supported by tight global supply, modest sow herd growth, and disease-related production losses.
However, Rabobank cautions that economic concerns and reduced consumer spending power—especially in foodservice—will likely limit demand growth through the remainder of 2025. Retail pork could see a modest lift, as consumers shift away from higher-priced beef and poultry.
Disease Challenges Weigh Heavily
Foot-and-mouth disease has reappeared in Europe and South Korea, causing transport restrictions and temporary trade bans, although conditions are stabilizing. African swine fever continues to affect Asia and parts of the EU, while PRRS remains a major health challenge in North America and Europe.
“Disease continues to disrupt not just production, but also consumer sentiment and trade flows,” McCracken notes.
Feed Costs Stable but Unpredictable
Expectations of a strong South American grain harvest, along with progress in North American planting, are helping stabilize feed costs. Still, geopolitical risks, currency fluctuations, and weather patterns remain major variables for producers managing input costs.
Rabobank forecasts relatively flat feed pricing for the rest of the year but warns that geopolitical and climate-related events could quickly shift that outlook.
Bottom Line: Modest Growth, High Volatility
The global pork industry in 2025 is walking a tightrope—balancing marginally favorable production conditions with significant trade and health threats. While some exporters will benefit from shifting market dynamics, the industry as a whole faces a turbulent remainder of the year.
Compiled and adapted by Swine Web. Source: Rabobank Q2 2025 Global Pork Quarterly.
