COVID-19’s Ripple Effect on U.S. Agriculture: Income, Resilience, and Land Values In-Depth Summary for Swine Web

The USDA’s Agricultural Income and Finance Situation and Outlook: 2024 Edition (EIB-280) provides a comprehensive analysis of the profound economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. agricultural sector. This detailed report reveals how government relief programs, off-farm employment dynamics, and land value trends shaped farm finances during one of the most volatile periods in recent history.

Download the complete USDA report here

1. Relief Programs Fueled Farm Sector Stability—But Unevenly

In 2020, federal support reached historic levels. Two programs—the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) and the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)—accounted for $29.5 billion, or 65% of the total $45.7 billion in government payments to farmers.

  • Large farms (GCFI ≥ $1 million), representing just 3% of U.S. farms, received over half of all CFAP and government payments. This was primarily due to their eligibility tied to unpriced inventory and production volume.

  • Only 15% of all farms received CFAP payments despite widespread commodity eligibility, revealing participation gaps—especially among smaller producers.

  • 6% of CFAP recipients would have had a negative net farm income without these payments—highlighting the program’s critical role in farm solvency.

2. Off-Farm Unemployment Shook Farm Household Income

With 70% of farm households dependent on off-farm wages, pandemic-related unemployment deeply impacted many rural families:

  • Farm households in the Midwest and Atlantic regions and those in metro counties experienced the highest off-farm unemployment rates.

  • Part-time and low-wage workers, as well as households with less education, were particularly vulnerable.

  • Residence farms—those with lower farm income and non-farming operators—had the highest off-farm unemployment (19%).

  • More resilient households mitigated income loss by working more hours or selling assets, while less resilient ones struggled to recover financially.

3. Farmland Values and Sales Defied the Downturn

Surprisingly, COVID-19 did not depress farmland values—instead, demand for land surged during the pandemic.

  • From 2019 to 2021, real values of cropland increased by 2.2% and pastureland by 0.2% annually, marking the first real value uptick since mid-2010s.

  • However, rents did not rise in tandem—they actually fell by 4.7% for cropland and 7.1% for pastureland, suggesting that land ownership became more appealing relative to leasing.

  • Sales volume rose, with 2.9 million acres of cropland and 2.4 million acres of pastureland changing hands annually—a jump of 11–12% compared to pre-pandemic years.

Key Takeaways for Pork Producers and the Swine Industry:

  • Scale mattered in accessing COVID relief. Small and medium-sized hog farms may have been underrepresented in CFAP distributions.

  • Diversification and off-farm jobs, often seen as financial buffers, became risk factors amid high unemployment. This reshapes how producers should assess household risk going forward.

  • The rise in land purchases vs. leases may alter long-term facility planning and expansion strategies for swine operations.

  • Policy design going forward must consider both farm size equity and household resilience, ensuring support structures don’t disproportionately benefit large-scale operations.

As the agricultural sector moves beyond pandemic disruption, the insights from this report can help guide more equitable, data-driven decisions that support farm financial health across all operation sizes.