June 19, 2025 – Swine Web Editorial
China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has announced plans to reduce the nation’s breeding sow herd by 1 million animals—signaling an aggressive move to correct market imbalance and relieve mounting economic deflation pressures. The reduction will bring the current sow inventory from 40.38 million to approximately 39.5 million.
The decision, reported by CLS.cn, follows months of declining pork prices and increasing frustration from Chinese producers. Many have been operating at a loss, with reports estimating a ¥100 (approx. $14 USD) loss per head sold.
A “Master Switch” for the Global Pork Market
The size of China’s breeding sow herd is often seen as a bellwether for future pork production—not only domestically but globally. With China importing over 760,000 tonnes of pork and pork offal between January and April 2025 (up 1.8% year-over-year), any major production shift can alter global trade dynamics and influence export strategies for producers in North America and beyond.
This move also comes as major Chinese pork companies reported a 30% increase in slaughter volume year-over-year for May. With live hog prices falling to 14.45 yuan/kg ($2 USD)—the lowest in 17 months—market signals have triggered a third-level warning from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) due to excessive price slumps.
Deflation, Regulation, and a Struggling Sector
China’s pork sector isn’t the only area under pressure. The country’s consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-over-year last month, while its producer price index (PPI) contracted for the 31st straight month. Economists and ag market analysts alike are watching closely, as pork carries heavy weight in China’s CPI basket.
In response, regulators are not only reducing sow numbers but also cracking down on practices like feeding pigs beyond slaughter weight to boost returns—a method blamed for worsening oversupply.
To help stabilize the market, China initiated its first frozen pork reserve purchase of 2025 on June 11, procuring 10,000 metric tonnes for state storage.
What This Means for North American Producers
As China corrects course, U.S. and Canadian pork producers may see ripple effects on export demand, price stabilization, and herd management strategies. While this move aims to support struggling Chinese farms, it also underscores how interconnected the global pork industry truly is.
With the full impact of this sow herd reduction likely to be felt in early 2026 (due to the 10-month production cycle), now is a critical time for producers to assess market signals, export opportunities, and production planning.
