Nutriad’s Weather and Mycotoxin Report – October 2018

The final days of the corn crop season in US brings unusual weather patterns as it has throughout the growing season. While a good portion of the production area faced long dry periods, such as in KS, MO, IA, AR, and OK the regions around those faced wetter than normal conditions.


The impacts of both drought and high moisture on mold and mycotoxin contamination were discussed in previous reports, but it is important to remind all that some Fusarium molds can benefit from an early dry season followed by wet conditions during dough and harvest, increasing the probability of contamination with mycotoxins such as Fumonisin, Deoxynivalenol (Vomitoxin), and Zearalenone.


We also discussed in previous reports, the potential for Aspergillus proliferation on dryer growing conditions, imposing a higher risk of Aflatoxin contamination.


According to reports, corn grain in US is over 70% mature, and approximately 20% already harvested.


Even with grain moisture declining in the past few weeks in most of the growing area, it is still above average, demanding higher attention at drying and storage. Storing grains over 14% moisture for longer periods can be detrimental to its quality due to possible mold growth.


It is recommended that a good sampling procedure be set up and a routine analysis of mycotoxins be conducted. That would allow preventative actions, avoiding performance and health problems in animal production.


The Nutriad team is available in the field to help in setting up sampling programs, analysis of mycotoxins and designing proprietary risk control programs for their customers.

NUTRIAD’S United States 30 Day Outlook (October 2018)
Author & Forecaster: Thomas Novak of Novak Weather ConsultantsUnited States:
In general, the Jet Stream steering winds will bisect the United States from southwest to northeast from the desert southwest to the Great Lakes region.  This upper air jet stream pattern will separate cool and wet conditions over much of the northern and western U.S. from warm and dry conditions over the southeastern ¼ of the U.S.

This jet stream pattern will continue to enhance a ridge over the southeastern U.S. that was established last month. In turn, the main storm track will continue to sit right across the heart of the U.S. basically from the central Rockies northeast into the Great Lakes.

Upper Midwest:
A cool and wet October is expected over much of this region as several storm systems are expected to track near or just south of the area. Those that have received plenty of moisture lately, such as southern Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Nebraska, will continue to receive healthy rains. The good news is that drought stricken areas of North and South Dakota are likely to receive some much needed rains and snows.

A strong ridge is expected to expand across this region promoting a dry and warm October, especially during the first half of the month. Temperatures will often average a good 10 to 20 degrees above normal with only scattered rains expected. Much of this region has received soaking rains over the last several months which will keep any impacts from dry weather at a minimum. Keep in mind that tropical systems are not factored into this outlook.

Deep South:
The dry trend continues in this region as a strong ridge builds overhead. Some drought conditions are starting to take hold, especially in Alabama and Georgia; these conditions will likely worsen as we head through October. Drought conditions may also develop over portions of South Carolina and northern Florida. Temperatures will continue to soar above average much of the month with 80s and 90s being the rule, especially during the first ½ of the month. Keep in mind that tropical systems are not factored into this outlook.

Southern Plains:
Special Note: Good news! Drought conditions are decreasing over much of this region and that trend should continue in October.

The storm track will be situated over much of this region during October especially as you head further north from the Gulf Coast states. Drought stricken areas of Missouri and Kansas are expected to receive healthy and potentially flooding rains. Meanwhile, there will be a sharp contrast in temperatures from west to east as an active jet stream separates colder air over the Rockies from warmer air over the Gulf Coast.

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