Jim Long Pork Commentary, U.S. Hogs and Pigs Report “Lots of Pigs!”July 2nd 2019

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Jim Long, President and CEO Genesus Genetics

 

U.S. Hogs and Pigs Report

“Lots of Pigs!”

The USDA report of the June 1st inventory indicates “Lots of Pigs” 4% more than a year ago. No doubt good pork demand domestically and globally will be important for maintaining profitable prices.

USDA June 1st Hogs and Pigs Report 

2018

2019

2019 as percent of 2018

Kept for breeding

6,320

6,410

101%

Market

66,546

69,111

104%

Market hog and pigs by weight groups

Under 50 pounds

21,327

22,019

103%

50-119 pounds

19,083

19,606

103%

120-179 pounds

13,988

14,427

103%

180 pounds and over

12,147

13,059

108%

 

Month

Sows Farrowing

Pigs Per Litter

Pig Crop

2018

2019

2018

2019

2018

2019

March

1,062

1,066

10.59

10.85

11,245

11,568

April

1,013

1,019

10.52

11.01

10,658

11,219

May

1,025

1,023

10.77

11.13

11,038

11,390

Observations 

  • Breeding Herd has expanded 1% over the last year. Certainly an increase but not what you would call aggressive expansion.
  • Market Hogs up 4%. 8% higher in the 180-pound plus category all other weight groups up 3%. This tells us we have some heavy weight hogs to clean up.
  • Sows farrowing last three months are no higher then a year ago.
  • All the Pig Crop increase has come from a major jump in litter size. It’s interesting that litter size is increasing faster then sows farrowing. Not sure why farrowing rate is not improving. Actually you could make argument it has declined. Same number of farrowing sows with larger breeder herd means farrowing rate decline.
  • In the last year Nebraska has been the leader in sow herd expansion up 30,000 to 450,000. No state declined in the breeding herd numbers over the last year.

How will this effect prices? Its all about China and global market access. Spain which is seeing excellent sales in China (no tariffs) has hog prices $50 U.S. per head higher then US producers. Market access and tariffs are so important to each and every exporting country.

G20

 

President Trump (USA) and President Xi (China) met at G20 in Japan. They have agreed to restart trade talks. President Trump indicated planned tariffs increases on Chinese goods would not proceed at this time. As we wrote earlier Spain with tariff free access to China versus USA’s 70% tariff are seeing hog prices $50 U.S. per head higher. Its obvious removal of tariffs on U.S. pork would be significantly positive for U.S. and Canada hog producers.

Summary 

USDA report shows lots of hogs. U.S. Packer Capacity can handle. Good idea for U.S. hog producers and China market access – tariff issue gets sorted.

Announcement

Alan Stephens Joins Genesus

Genesus is pleased to announce the appointment of Alan Stephens to our Sales and Technical Support team, reporting to Greg Gilsdorf, General Manager, US.

Alan’s career in the livestock industry has spanned over 30 years working with swine, turkeys and broilers. His most recent and relevant experience includes:

  • The Maschhoffs LLC (5 years)
    Sr. Business Development Manager. Responsible for recruitment of contract growers for the company’s wean-to-market system in Nebraska and Western Iowa.
  • Aviagen/British United Turkeys (Turkey Genetics) (22 years)
    VP Operations/Director of Sales and Marketing. Range of responsibilities involved in growth of the company’s market share in North and South America including technical service, sales, production and operations management.

In his Sales and Technical Support role, Alan will be focused on further developing Genesus’ sales and relationships with US customers, primarily in the Midwest states.

Alan will work out of his home office in Elkhorn, NE (near Omaha) where he lives with his wife, Kristin.

Alan’s hiring reflects Genesus’ commitment to our growing presence in the US swine market and support of our current and future customers.

Alan Stephens contact :

Tel: +1 402-983-7162

Email: astephens@genesus.com  

View message online

Jim Long Pork Commentary

www.genesus.com

 

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