Genesus Global Market Report Canada – Chinese Rollercoaster

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Genesus Global Market Report

Canada – Chinese Rollercoaster

Sept 2019

Bob Fraser – Sales & Service, Genesus Ontario

bfraser@genesus.com

Given the wild ride of 2019 a review of my last four commentaries seems appropriate. As has been said “forgetting history dooms you to repeating it” or at least repeating it in your writing. So here below at risk of redundancy is our ride to date in 2019.

I write a Canadian Commentary every eight weeks. January 28, 2019 producer profit projection per pig with average production stood at(-$22.26), March 18, 2019 (-$34.07), May 20, 2019 $55.39, July 18, 2019 (-$5.03)  and now September 9, 2019 (-$9.20).

I believe not even the most ardent rollercoaster enthusiast would enjoy this ride. Let alone feel the euphoria of May has been even close to enough of an offset for the rest of the red ink.


As per Bob Hunsberger, Wallenstein Feeds, Hog Economics Summary Sheet 

Now a further eight weeks on we have profitability going from per pig with average production loss of (-$5.03) to a loss of (-$9.20). Then with the next twelve-month projection moving from $22.06 to $33.80. A pause before for another meteoritic rise or plunge? Or is the rollercoaster going to give us a period of relative calm?

Fortunately, pork producers have a unique ability to ignore “talking heads”, if they listen to them at all. (note on “talking heads” – the kettle calling the pot black). They do there own thinking and here in Ontario/Canada seeing some small, cautious expansion. Particularly generational turnover, as mothers and fathers with a long view of what the pork industry has done for them encourage sons and daughters into the game. I am personally involved with several of these that are heartening for the industry.

As to where from here, it still remains all about China.  However, predicting where that goes has become an increasing mugs game. Seems the between a rock and a hard place has become an ever-tightening geopolitical vice, especially here in Canada. As to the “dog getting to the end of the chain”, clearly the chain is considerably longer than most have thought. Perhaps we need to consider closer who the dog in fact is. Or more importantly who Foghorn Leghorn1 is (a known big mouth snook)???

For all you Looney Tunes2 Fans a reminder of what started all this.

1 Foghorn Leghorn is a cartoon character that appears in Looney Tunes and Merrie Melodies cartoons and films from Warner Bros. The character starred in 29 cartoons from 1946 to 1964 (Golden Age of American Animation); 2 Looney Tunes is an American series of animated comedy short films produced by Warner Bros. from 1930 to 1969.

Get acquainted with the
Global Mega Produce

A program of recognition led by National Hog Farmer sponsored by Genesus Inc.

Christensen Farms

Christensen Farms has again been recognized as a Global Mega Producer for 2019.

Headquartered in Sleepy Eye, Minnesota, Christensen Farms is one of the largest, family-owned pork producers in the United States.

With nearly 1,000 employees and 1,500 contract partners, the company spans across the Midwest to include facilities in Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois and South Dakota.

They currently operate four feed mills, manage 145,000 sows on 44 farms, and oversee more than 350 nurseries and grow-finish sites.

The desire for a more integrated production model led Christensen Farms to become the largest shareholder of Triumph Food LLC.

Triumph Foods, LLC was organized in 2003 by a group of the largest U.S. independent pork producers whose goal was to create a pork processing operation capable of recognizing the benefits of an integrated business model. Today 487,200 sows are in production under the Triumph Foods brand. The company began processing operations in 2006, in St. Joseph, MO, currently with a processing capacity in excess of 6 million hogs per year

Triumph Foods also holds a 50 percent partnership in another primary pork processing plant, known as Seaboard Triumph Foods, LLC of Sioux City, Iowa. To support further pork processing for specialized items such as bacon and other premium products, Triumph Foods members own 50 percent of Daily’s Premium Meats.

Through key packer and partner relationships, Christensen Farms markets nearly 3 million hogs per year with increased traceability, quality assurance and pricing stability for their customers.

Let’s congratulate Christensen Farms for being a Global Mega Producer.

Greg Howard – VP of Strategic planning, Christensen Farm and Bob Kemp PhD PAg – Vice-President Genetic Programs and R&D, Genesus Inc

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